RDC Averages

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with RDC 22.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

RDC: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to RDC stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for RDC.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Friday, March 12, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Convergys Corporation, ticker symbol CVG. Also, there are breaking events concerning ConAgra Foods, Inc. (CAG) and Pre-Paid Legal (PPD)

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.53 % minus 0.79 % = 2.74 %	23.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	2.08 % minus 0.17 % = 1.91 %	97.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.41 % minus 0.09 % = 1.32 %	168.15 %
Sell Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.86 % minus 0.79 % = 1.07 %	9.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.92 % minus 0.17 % = 0.75 %	38.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.09 % = 0.42 %	53.45 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.79 % = -0.09 %	-0.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.08 %	-4.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %	-3.52 %
Sell Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.41 % minus 0.79 % = -0.38 %	-3.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.17 % = -0.08 %	-4.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %	5.37 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.59 % minus 0.79 % = 2.80 %	23.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.98 % minus 0.17 % = 1.81 %	92.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.41 % minus 0.09 % = 1.32 %	167.27 %
Sell Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.74 % minus 0.79 % = 0.95 %	8.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.47 % minus 0.17 % = -0.64 %	-32.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.09 % = -0.37 %	-46.90 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 659 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.79 % = -0.17 %	-1.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.17 % = -0.21 %	-10.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %	-15.39 %
Sell Signals - 659 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.79 % = -0.16 %	-1.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.01 % minus 0.17 % = -0.16 %	-8.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %	-2.77 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 927 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.79 % = 0.01 %	0.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.17 % = -0.04 %	-1.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %	-1.73 %
Sell Signals - 926 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.87 % minus 0.79 % = 0.08 %	0.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.07 %	-3.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %	4.97 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 360 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.79 % = 0.02 %	0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.17 % = -0.14 %	-6.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.09 % = -0.18 %	-22.31 %
Sell Signals - 361 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.42 % minus 0.79 % = 0.62 %	5.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.17 % = 0.35 %	17.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.09 % = 0.33 %	42.26 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 239 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.18 % minus 0.79 % = 0.39 %	3.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.17 % = 0.25 %	12.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.09 % = 0.20 %	24.92 %
Sell Signals - 240 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.79 % = 0.38 %	3.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.17 % = 0.36 %	18.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.09 % = 0.30 %	37.70 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.90 % minus 0.79 % = 1.11 %	9.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.92 % minus 0.17 % = -1.09 %	-55.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.73 % minus 0.09 % = -0.82 %	-104.58 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 0.79 % = 0.41 %	3.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.17 % = 0.10 %	5.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.09 % = 0.17 %	21.44 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 228 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.79 % = -0.26 %	-2.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.17 % = 0.07 %	3.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %	-7.49 %
Sell Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.79 % = -0.53 %	-4.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.33 % minus 0.17 % = -0.50 %	-25.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.25 % minus 0.09 % = -0.34 %	-42.68 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.80 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.53 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.91 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.64 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.32 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.37 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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