Moving Average Indicators for RL

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From the Weekend Report 7/23/2010: RL may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week.

RL: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on RL stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for RL.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation
Companies In the News
Friday, July 30, 2010: We have news on Janus Capital Group Inc., ticker symbol JNS. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Akamai Technologies, Inc. and Cummins Inc..

From the News Archive: (7/28/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Quest Diagnostics Incorporated. Meanwhile, bad news came from W.W. Grainger, Inc., Dupont, and Abbott Laboratories.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.77 % minus 0.98 % = -3.75 %-31.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.26 % minus 0.21 % = -1.48 %-75.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.31 % minus 0.11 % = -1.42 %-180.63 %
Sell Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.98 % = -0.53 %-4.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.83 % minus 0.21 % = -2.05 %-103.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.07 % minus 0.11 % = -1.18 %-149.98 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 95 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.56 % minus 0.98 % = 0.58 %4.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.21 % = 0.74 %37.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.11 % = 0.43 %54.46 %
Sell Signals - 95 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.98 % = 0.18 %1.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.21 % = -0.37 %-18.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.16 %-19.86 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.98 % = -0.41 %-3.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.82 % minus 0.21 % = 1.61 %81.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.53 % minus 0.11 % = 1.42 %180.29 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.98 % = -0.10 %-0.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.90 % minus 0.21 % = 1.69 %85.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 0.11 % = 1.38 %175.33 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 325 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.98 % = -0.41 %-3.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %-6.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.19 %-24.72 %
Sell Signals - 326 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.98 % = -0.38 %-3.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.21 % = -0.12 %-5.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.16 %-20.00 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 416 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.98 % = -0.06 %-0.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.21 % = 0.08 %3.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.11 % = 0.11 %13.37 %
Sell Signals - 415 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.98 % = -0.09 %-0.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.21 % = -0.02 %-1.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.11 % = 0.00 %0.46 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 173 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.98 % = -0.22 %-1.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.21 % = 0.06 %3.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.11 % = 0.07 %8.86 %
Sell Signals - 173 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.98 % = -0.39 %-3.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.21 % = 0.05 %2.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.11 % = -0.19 %-24.22 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.98 % = 0.03 %0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.21 % = 0.12 %6.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.11 % = 0.18 %22.50 %
Sell Signals - 119 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.98 % = 0.13 %1.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.21 % = 0.35 %17.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.11 % = -0.05 %-5.78 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.66 % minus 0.98 % = -1.64 %-13.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.21 % = 0.00 %0.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.11 % = -0.24 %-30.77 %
Sell Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.59 % minus 0.98 % = -2.57 %-21.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.97 % minus 0.21 % = -2.19 %-111.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -2.21 % minus 0.11 % = -2.32 %-295.22 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 114 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.98 % = -0.28 %-2.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.21 % = 0.29 %14.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.11 % = 0.28 %35.44 %
Sell Signals - 88 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.98 % = 0.13 %1.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.21 % = -0.63 %-31.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.11 % = -0.27 %-34.61 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.58 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.57 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.61 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -2.19 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.42 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -2.32 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for RL Stock Prices