RMBS Averages

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Rambus, Inc.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Rambus, Inc.:

Predictions

Support and Resistance

Frequency Analysis

Japanese CandleSticks

Technical Oscillators

Stratification Analysis

Politics and Prices

Classical Time Series

Historical Volume

Risk-Volatility

Bernoulli Analysis

Sentiment

Seasonal Trends

Back to RMBS Table of Contents

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to RMBS stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for RMBS.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

	Companies In the News
	Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

	.
Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 12 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.09 % minus 3.03 % = 0.06 %	0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	5.99 % minus 0.54 % = 5.45 %	276.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	3.12 % minus 0.26 % = 2.86 %	363.24 %
Sell Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	16.23 % minus 3.03 % = 13.21 %	111.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	4.52 % minus 0.54 % = 3.98 %	202.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose	3.08 % minus 0.26 % = 2.82 %	358.63 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 97 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.95 % minus 3.03 % = 0.92 %	7.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.54 % = -0.23 %	-11.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.26 % = -0.05 %	-6.95 %
Sell Signals - 97 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.44 % minus 3.03 % = 1.41 %	11.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.74 % minus 0.54 % = 1.20 %	60.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 0.26 % = 0.73 %	92.77 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.75 % minus 3.03 % = -0.28 %	-2.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.61 % minus 0.54 % = -2.15 %	-109.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.26 % = -0.01 %	-1.62 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	7.84 % minus 3.03 % = 4.81 %	40.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.54 % = -0.28 %	-14.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 0.26 % = 0.70 %	89.44 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 283 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.28 % minus 3.03 % = 1.26 %	10.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 0.54 % = 0.63 %	32.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.26 % = 0.51 %	64.99 %
Sell Signals - 284 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.32 % minus 3.03 % = 0.29 %	2.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.54 % = 0.02 %	0.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.26 % = 0.08 %	10.29 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 382 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.69 % minus 3.03 % = -0.33 %	-2.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.22 % minus 0.54 % = 0.68 %	34.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 0.26 % = 0.57 %	72.98 %
Sell Signals - 381 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.26 % minus 3.03 % = -0.77 %	-6.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.54 % = -0.21 %	-10.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.26 % = -0.04 %	-5.65 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 171 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.00 % minus 3.03 % = 0.98 %	8.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.54 % = 0.16 %	8.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.26 % = -0.19 %	-23.71 %
Sell Signals - 171 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.26 % minus 3.03 % = 0.24 %	2.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.54 % = -0.69 %	-35.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.26 % = -0.36 %	-45.95 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 114 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	7.50 % minus 3.03 % = 4.47 %	37.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.54 % = -0.10 %	-5.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.26 % = 0.00 %	0.28 %
Sell Signals - 114 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	6.76 % minus 3.03 % = 3.74 %	31.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.54 % = -0.63 %	-31.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.26 % = -0.38 %	-48.23 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.58 % minus 3.03 % = -4.61 %	-39.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.83 % minus 0.54 % = -2.37 %	-120.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.91 % minus 0.26 % = -1.17 %	-148.15 %
Sell Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	31.86 % minus 3.03 % = 28.84 %	244.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.97 % minus 0.54 % = -1.51 %	-76.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.26 % = -0.14 %	-17.98 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 87 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.59 % minus 3.03 % = -0.44 %	-3.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.81 % minus 0.54 % = -1.34 %	-68.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.96 % minus 0.26 % = -1.23 %	-155.60 %
Sell Signals - 102 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.79 % minus 3.03 % = 1.76 %	14.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.53 % minus 0.54 % = 0.99 %	50.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.20 % minus 0.26 % = 0.94 %	119.21 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 4.47 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -0.77 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 5.45 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.51 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 2.86 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.38 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Rambus, Inc.

Detailed Average Level Analysis for RMBS :

Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.Com

This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.