Moving Average Analysis of ROK

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with ROK 20.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on ROK stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ROK.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

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	In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.32 % minus 1.55 % = 0.77 %	6.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.30 % = 0.17 %	8.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.15 % = 0.36 %	45.86 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 1.55 % = -1.44 %	-12.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.88 % minus 0.30 % = -1.18 %	-60.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.10 % minus 0.15 % = -1.25 %	-158.99 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.01 % minus 1.55 % = 0.46 %	3.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.30 % = 0.20 %	10.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.15 % = 0.03 %	3.78 %
Sell Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.38 % minus 1.55 % = -0.17 %	-1.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.30 % = -0.45 %	-22.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.24 % minus 0.15 % = -0.39 %	-49.41 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.12 % minus 1.55 % = 1.58 %	13.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.30 % = 0.27 %	13.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.15 % = -0.28 %	-35.09 %
Sell Signals - 42 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.14 % minus 1.55 % = 0.59 %	5.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.30 % = 0.08 %	3.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.15 % = -0.11 %	-13.47 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 719 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.32 % minus 1.55 % = -0.23 %	-1.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.30 % = 0.01 %	0.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.01 %	-1.13 %
Sell Signals - 719 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.27 % minus 1.55 % = -0.28 %	-2.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.30 % = 0.01 %	0.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.15 % = 0.04 %	5.34 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 956 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.22 % minus 1.55 % = -0.33 %	-2.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.30 % = -0.09 %	-4.57 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.01 %	-1.55 %
Sell Signals - 955 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 1.55 % = -0.30 %	-2.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.30 % = -0.09 %	-4.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.15 % = -0.06 %	-7.99 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 404 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.32 % minus 1.55 % = -0.23 %	-1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.30 % = -0.16 %	-8.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.15 % = -0.17 %	-21.07 %
Sell Signals - 404 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.60 % minus 1.55 % = 0.05 %	0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.30 % = 0.01 %	0.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %	0.09 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 287 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.35 % minus 1.55 % = -0.20 %	-1.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.30 % = -0.11 %	-5.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.15 % = -0.19 %	-23.69 %
Sell Signals - 287 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.73 % minus 1.55 % = 0.18 %	1.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.30 % = 0.21 %	10.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.15 % = 0.22 %	28.01 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.36 % minus 1.55 % = 0.82 %	6.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 0.30 % = 0.84 %	42.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.15 % = 0.61 %	77.49 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.17 % minus 1.55 % = 0.62 %	5.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.28 % minus 0.30 % = 0.98 %	49.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.77 % minus 0.15 % = 0.61 %	77.76 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 275 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.80 % minus 1.55 % = 0.25 %	2.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.30 % = 0.07 %	3.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.15 % = 0.06 %	7.25 %
Sell Signals - 193 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.39 % minus 1.55 % = -0.16 %	-1.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.30 % = -0.23 %	-11.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.15 % = 0.01 %	0.88 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.58 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.44 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.84 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.25 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.61 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.25 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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