Moving Average Analysis of ROST

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The current price is 21.00 % above the 200 bar SMA and it has increased the distance since last week. This represents phase 1 of the MACD cycle.

ROST:  Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions

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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Ross Stores, Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on ROST stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for ROST.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Ross Stores, Inc.
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In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.15 % minus 1.70 % = -2.85 %-24.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.33 % = -0.09 %-4.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.16 % = 0.70 %88.99 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.20 % minus 1.70 % = 1.49 %12.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.33 % = 0.78 %39.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 0.16 % = 0.86 %109.30 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 176 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.84 % minus 1.70 % = 1.13 %9.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.33 % = 0.34 %17.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.16 % = 0.04 %5.11 %
Sell Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.29 % minus 1.70 % = 0.59 %4.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.33 % = 0.03 %1.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.16 % = 0.08 %10.53 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.02 % minus 1.70 % = -2.72 %-23.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.33 % = -0.66 %-33.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.16 % = -0.52 %-66.34 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.60 % minus 1.70 % = -0.11 %-0.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.71 % minus 0.33 % = -1.03 %-52.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.16 % = -0.69 %-87.97 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 574 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.03 % minus 1.70 % = 0.32 %2.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.33 % = 0.26 %13.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.16 % = 0.26 %32.95 %
Sell Signals - 575 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.83 % minus 1.70 % = 0.13 %1.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.33 % = -0.11 %-5.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %-7.82 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 756 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.52 % minus 1.70 % = -0.18 %-1.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.33 % = -0.05 %-2.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.16 % = 0.07 %9.11 %
Sell Signals - 755 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.66 % minus 1.70 % = -0.05 %-0.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.33 % = 0.07 %3.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.16 % = -0.03 %-3.48 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 303 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.91 % minus 1.70 % = 0.20 %1.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.33 % = -0.11 %-5.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.16 % = 0.08 %10.27 %
Sell Signals - 302 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.05 % minus 1.70 % = 0.34 %2.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.33 % = -0.03 %-1.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-6.37 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 196 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.28 % minus 1.70 % = 0.58 %4.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.33 % = -0.18 %-9.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.16 % = -0.13 %-16.56 %
Sell Signals - 196 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.92 % minus 1.70 % = 1.21 %10.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.33 % = 0.61 %31.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.16 % = 0.64 %81.47 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 1.70 % = -0.81 %-6.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.33 % = 0.48 %24.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.16 % = 0.51 %65.14 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.57 % minus 1.70 % = 2.86 %24.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.86 % minus 0.33 % = 1.54 %78.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 0.16 % = 1.06 %134.64 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.60 % minus 1.70 % = 0.90 %7.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.33 % = 0.58 %29.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.16 % = 0.49 %62.63 %
Sell Signals - 162 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 1.70 % = -0.60 %-5.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.33 % = -0.16 %-8.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.16 % = -0.22 %-27.80 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.13 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.60 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.58 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -1.03 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.70 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.69 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Ross Stores, Inc. Stock Prices - ROST