Moving Average Analysis of RSH

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From the Weekend Report 3/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with RSH 29.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of RadioShack Corporation
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on RSH stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for RSH.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of RadioShack Corporation
Companies In the News
Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Patterson Companies, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and ACM Income Fund. Meanwhile, bad news came from LSI Corporation and Sempra Energy.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.58 % minus 0.80 % = -2.38 %-20.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.16 % = -0.34 %-17.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.08 % = 0.63 %79.79 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.44 % minus 0.80 % = 1.64 %13.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.17 % minus 0.16 % = 1.01 %51.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.08 % = 0.82 %104.52 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.80 % = -0.74 %-6.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.16 % = -0.18 %-9.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.08 % = -0.22 %-28.14 %
Sell Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.80 % = -0.29 %-2.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.16 % = -0.13 %-6.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.04 %-4.45 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.73 % minus 0.80 % = -1.53 %-12.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.16 % = 0.83 %41.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 0.08 % = 1.10 %140.22 %
Sell Signals - 45 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.80 % = -0.43 %-3.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-2.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.08 % = -0.26 %-33.09 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 626 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.80 % = 0.28 %2.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.16 % = 0.13 %6.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.08 %10.15 %
Sell Signals - 627 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.80 % = 0.36 %3.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.16 % = 0.14 %6.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.08 % = 0.06 %7.07 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 863 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.80 % = 0.20 %1.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.16 % = 0.13 %6.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.08 % = 0.06 %7.33 %
Sell Signals - 862 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.13 % minus 0.80 % = 0.33 %2.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.16 % = 0.26 %13.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.08 % = 0.20 %25.79 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 353 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.80 % = -0.01 %-0.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.16 % = 0.13 %6.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.08 % = 0.10 %13.07 %
Sell Signals - 354 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.80 % = -0.28 %-2.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.16 % = -0.08 %-3.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.07 %-9.15 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.80 % = -0.46 %-3.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.16 % = -0.04 %-1.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %3.53 %
Sell Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.56 % minus 0.80 % = -1.36 %-11.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.16 % = -0.54 %-27.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.08 % = -0.22 %-28.15 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.51 % minus 0.80 % = -2.31 %-19.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.16 % = 0.05 %2.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.08 % = -0.43 %-55.02 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.48 % minus 0.80 % = 0.68 %5.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.16 % = -0.49 %-25.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.03 %-3.52 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 246 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 0.80 % = 0.44 %3.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.16 % = 0.43 %21.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.08 % = 0.22 %28.45 %
Sell Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.80 % = -0.69 %-5.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.46 % minus 0.16 % = -0.62 %-31.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.08 % = -0.44 %-55.68 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -1.36 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.83 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.62 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.10 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Moving Average Analysis for RSH Stock Prices