Moving Average Indicators for RTN

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The price of RTN is -4.00 % below the 200 session average and is continuing to diverge in a negative manner, indicating phase 3 of the the 4 phase MACD cycle is still in effect.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Raytheon Company
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Raytheon Company:

Different ways of averaging are tested on RTN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to RTN stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Raytheon Company
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.34 % minus 0.67 % = 1.67 %14.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.13 % = 0.43 %21.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.09 %-11.00 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.80 % minus 0.67 % = 1.13 %9.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.13 % = 0.16 %8.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.07 % = 0.15 %19.41 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 204 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.67 % = -0.29 %-2.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.13 % = 0.27 %13.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.07 % = 0.20 %25.33 %
Sell Signals - 204 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.39 % minus 0.67 % = -0.28 %-2.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.13 % = -0.25 %-12.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.07 % = -0.19 %-24.18 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.67 % = -0.50 %-4.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.89 % minus 0.13 % = -1.02 %-51.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.07 % = -0.43 %-54.51 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.67 % = 0.08 %0.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.13 % = -0.22 %-11.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.07 % = -0.15 %-19.03 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 668 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.67 % = -0.11 %-0.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.13 % = -0.03 %-1.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.07 % = -0.02 %-2.36 %
Sell Signals - 669 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.67 % = -0.05 %-0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.13 % = 0.02 %0.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.07 % = 0.03 %3.23 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 942 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.67 % = 0.00 %0.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.05 %-2.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.07 % = -0.12 %-14.99 %
Sell Signals - 941 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.67 % = -0.02 %-0.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.02 %-0.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.07 % = -0.06 %-7.64 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 367 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.67 % = -0.29 %-2.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.13 % = 0.01 %0.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.07 % = 0.10 %12.42 %
Sell Signals - 368 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.67 % = -0.29 %-2.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.13 % = 0.08 %3.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.07 % = 0.08 %10.75 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 272 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.41 % minus 0.67 % = -0.26 %-2.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.13 % = -0.08 %-3.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.10 %-13.11 %
Sell Signals - 272 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.67 % = -0.15 %-1.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.13 % = 0.09 %4.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.07 % = 0.04 %5.14 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 0.67 % = 0.82 %6.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.46 % minus 0.13 % = -0.59 %-30.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.07 % = -0.44 %-56.26 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.16 % minus 0.67 % = 0.49 %4.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.09 %-4.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.07 % = -0.07 %-8.63 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 240 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.67 % = -0.29 %-2.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.13 % = 0.21 %10.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.07 % = 0.10 %13.22 %
Sell Signals - 177 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.67 % = 0.26 %2.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.05 %-2.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.07 % = 0.00 %-0.62 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.67 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.29 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.43 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.25 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.20 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.19 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for RTN Stock Prices