Moving Average Analysis of SEE

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From the Weekend Report 6/18/2010: After increasing the spread over the week, SEE is now 4.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Sealed Air Corp.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to SEE stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to SEE stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Friday, July 30, 2010: We have news on Janus Capital Group Inc., ticker symbol JNS. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Akamai Technologies, Inc. and Cummins Inc..

From the News Archive: (7/28/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Quest Diagnostics Incorporated. Meanwhile, bad news came from W.W. Grainger, Inc., Dupont, and Abbott Laboratories.

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.14 % minus 1.31 % = -2.45 %	-20.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.24 % = -0.01 %	-0.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.12 % = -0.13 %	-17.10 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.44 % minus 1.31 % = -1.76 %	-14.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.30 % minus 0.24 % = -0.54 %	-27.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.12 % = -0.03 %	-4.11 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 1.31 % = -0.50 %	-4.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.24 % = -0.22 %	-11.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.03 % minus 0.12 % = -0.15 %	-18.82 %
Sell Signals - 151 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.22 % minus 1.31 % = 0.91 %	7.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.51 % minus 0.24 % = 0.27 %	13.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.12 % = 0.26 %	33.08 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 1.31 % = -0.36 %	-3.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.24 % = 0.21 %	10.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.12 % = -0.20 %	-25.06 %
Sell Signals - 36 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 1.31 % = -0.44 %	-3.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.24 % = 0.26 %	13.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.12 % = 0.25 %	32.19 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 482 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 1.31 % = -0.06 %	-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.24 % = -0.20 %	-10.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.12 % = -0.14 %	-17.72 %
Sell Signals - 482 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.43 % minus 1.31 % = 0.12 %	1.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.24 % = 0.11 %	5.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.12 % = 0.14 %	17.55 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 700 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.19 % minus 1.31 % = -0.12 %	-1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.24 % = 0.09 %	4.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.12 % = 0.12 %	15.09 %
Sell Signals - 699 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.02 % minus 1.31 % = -0.29 %	-2.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.24 % = -0.12 %	-5.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.12 % = 0.00 %	-0.05 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 254 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.34 % minus 1.31 % = 0.03 %	0.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.24 % = -0.15 %	-7.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.12 % = -0.27 %	-34.58 %
Sell Signals - 256 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 1.31 % = -0.79 %	-6.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.13 % minus 0.24 % = -0.37 %	-18.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.12 % = -0.28 %	-35.15 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 163 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.87 % minus 1.31 % = 1.56 %	13.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 0.24 % = 0.58 %	29.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.12 % = 0.28 %	35.59 %
Sell Signals - 164 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.82 % minus 1.31 % = 0.50 %	4.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.24 % = 0.12 %	5.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.12 % = 0.25 %	31.60 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.09 % minus 1.31 % = 0.78 %	6.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.09 % minus 0.24 % = 0.85 %	42.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.63 % minus 0.12 % = 0.51 %	65.38 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 1.31 % = -0.44 %	-3.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.06 % minus 0.24 % = 0.81 %	41.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.64 % minus 0.12 % = 0.52 %	65.62 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 172 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 1.31 % = -1.42 %	-11.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.24 % = -0.34 %	-17.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.12 % = -0.27 %	-34.12 %
Sell Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.72 % minus 1.31 % = 0.40 %	3.40 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.24 % = -0.15 %	-7.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.12 % = -0.20 %	-25.54 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.56 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.76 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.85 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.54 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.51 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.28 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

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Moving Average Analysis for SEE Stock Prices