STJ Averages

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From the Weekend Report 8/27/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of St. Jude Medical, Inc.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to STJ stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for STJ.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Tuesday, September 07, 2010: We have news on Qiagen N.V., ticker symbol QGEN. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mattel, Inc. and SYSCO Corporation.

From the News Archive: (9/7/2010 ) Bad news came from Expeditors International of Washington, Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., Varian Medical Systems, Inc., and Apartment Investment and Management Co..

MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.35 % minus 1.04 % = -1.39 %	-11.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.21 % = 0.34 %	17.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.11 % = 0.37 %	46.57 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.52 % minus 1.04 % = 0.48 %	4.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.23 % minus 0.21 % = -0.44 %	-22.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.11 % = -0.37 %	-46.64 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.42 % minus 1.04 % = 0.38 %	3.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.21 % = 0.03 %	1.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.15 %	-19.53 %
Sell Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 1.04 % = -0.84 %	-7.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.52 % minus 0.21 % = -0.73 %	-36.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.25 % minus 0.11 % = -0.36 %	-45.35 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.90 % minus 1.04 % = -1.94 %	-16.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.21 % = -0.27 %	-13.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.11 % = 0.08 %	10.42 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.01 % minus 1.04 % = -0.03 %	-0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.21 % = -0.19 %	-9.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.11 % = -0.23 %	-28.91 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 508 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.30 % minus 1.04 % = 0.26 %	2.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.21 % = 0.06 %	3.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.11 % = 0.01 %	1.11 %
Sell Signals - 507 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.35 % minus 1.04 % = 0.31 %	2.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.21 % = 0.16 %	7.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.11 % = 0.11 %	14.42 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 705 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 1.04 % = 0.06 %	0.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.21 % = 0.02 %	1.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.05 %	-6.81 %
Sell Signals - 705 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 1.04 % = 0.12 %	1.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.21 % = 0.02 %	1.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.11 % = 0.01 %	1.08 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 294 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.28 % minus 1.04 % = 0.24 %	2.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.21 % = -0.15 %	-7.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.11 % = 0.00 %	-0.53 %
Sell Signals - 294 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.82 % minus 1.04 % = 0.78 %	6.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.21 % = 0.06 %	2.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.11 % = 0.14 %	17.41 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 184 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.94 % minus 1.04 % = -0.10 %	-0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.21 % = -0.08 %	-4.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.05 % minus 0.11 % = -0.16 %	-20.17 %
Sell Signals - 185 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.50 % minus 1.04 % = 0.46 %	3.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.21 % = 0.47 %	23.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.11 % = 0.26 %	32.88 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.62 % minus 1.04 % = -1.66 %	-14.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.21 % = -0.10 %	-5.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.11 % = 0.08 %	10.32 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.29 % minus 1.04 % = 0.25 %	2.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.21 % = 0.59 %	30.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.11 % = 0.46 %	57.85 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 180 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.10 % minus 1.04 % = 0.06 %	0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.21 % = 0.09 %	4.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.11 % = 0.12 %	15.17 %
Sell Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 1.04 % = -1.04 %	-8.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.15 % minus 0.21 % = -0.35 %	-17.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.01 % minus 0.11 % = -0.11 %	-14.40 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.04 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.34 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.73 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.37 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.37 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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Moving Average Convergence for St. Jude Medical, Inc. Stock Prices - STJ