Moving Average Analysis of SWN

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From the Weekend Report 9/3/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Southwestern Energy Company
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Southwestern Energy Company:

Different ways of averaging are tested on SWN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for SWN.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Southwestern Energy Company
Companies In the News
Tuesday, September 07, 2010: We have news on Qiagen N.V., ticker symbol QGEN. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mattel, Inc. and SYSCO Corporation.

From the News Archive: (9/7/2010 ) Bad news came from Expeditors International of Washington, Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., Varian Medical Systems, Inc., and Apartment Investment and Management Co..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 1.66 % = -0.99 %-8.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.34 % = -0.40 %-20.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.18 % = 0.38 %48.34 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.59 % minus 1.66 % = -0.07 %-0.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.34 % = -0.43 %-21.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.53 % minus 0.18 % = -0.70 %-89.36 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 164 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.56 % minus 1.66 % = -0.09 %-0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.34 % = -0.24 %-12.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.18 % = -0.30 %-37.57 %
Sell Signals - 165 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.87 % minus 1.66 % = 0.21 %1.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.34 % = 0.31 %16.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.18 % = 0.02 %2.95 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 1.66 % = -1.32 %-11.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.34 % = -0.24 %-12.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.18 % = -0.44 %-56.48 %
Sell Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.74 % minus 1.66 % = -2.40 %-20.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.34 % = -1.02 %-51.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.18 % = -0.51 %-64.78 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 546 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.05 % minus 1.66 % = 0.39 %3.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.34 % = -0.03 %-1.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.18 % = -0.04 %-4.84 %
Sell Signals - 546 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.08 % minus 1.66 % = 0.43 %3.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.34 % = 0.18 %9.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.18 % = 0.10 %12.47 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 765 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.03 % minus 1.66 % = 0.37 %3.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.34 % = 0.22 %11.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.18 % = 0.09 %11.38 %
Sell Signals - 764 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.85 % minus 1.66 % = 0.19 %1.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.34 % = 0.05 %2.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.18 % = 0.01 %1.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 312 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.78 % minus 1.66 % = 0.12 %1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.34 % = -0.27 %-13.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.34 %-42.72 %
Sell Signals - 313 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.29 % minus 1.66 % = 0.63 %5.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.34 % = 0.11 %5.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.18 % = 0.08 %10.33 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 1.66 % = -0.67 %-5.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.34 % = -0.17 %-8.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.18 % = -0.10 %-12.61 %
Sell Signals - 201 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.69 % minus 1.66 % = 0.03 %0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.34 % = -0.01 %-0.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %14.06 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.28 % minus 1.66 % = -0.38 %-3.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.34 % = -0.21 %-10.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.99 % minus 0.18 % = -1.17 %-148.15 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 1.66 % = -0.74 %-6.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.34 % = -0.63 %-32.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.61 % minus 0.18 % = -0.79 %-100.38 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 189 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.26 % minus 1.66 % = -0.40 %-3.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.34 % = -0.27 %-13.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.18 % = -0.01 %-1.07 %
Sell Signals - 154 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.75 % minus 1.66 % = 0.10 %0.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.34 % = -0.37 %-18.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.18 % = -0.25 %-31.52 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.39 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.40 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.22 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -1.02 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.79 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Southwestern Energy Company Moving Averages - SWN