Moving Average Analysis of SWN

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is -6.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on SWN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for SWN.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Southwestern Energy Company

	Companies In the News
	Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.

MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.67 % minus 1.63 % = -0.96 %	-8.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.34 % = -0.39 %	-19.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.56 % minus 0.17 % = 0.38 %	48.84 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.59 % minus 1.63 % = -0.04 %	-0.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.34 % = -0.42 %	-21.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.53 % minus 0.17 % = -0.70 %	-88.86 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 165 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.52 % minus 1.63 % = -0.10 %	-0.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.34 % = -0.24 %	-12.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.17 % = -0.30 %	-37.79 %
Sell Signals - 166 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.79 % minus 1.63 % = 0.16 %	1.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.61 % minus 0.34 % = 0.28 %	14.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.17 % = 0.00 %	0.00 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 1.63 % = -1.29 %	-10.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.34 % = -0.23 %	-11.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.27 % minus 0.17 % = -0.44 %	-55.98 %
Sell Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.74 % minus 1.63 % = -2.37 %	-20.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.67 % minus 0.34 % = -1.01 %	-51.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.33 % minus 0.17 % = -0.51 %	-64.28 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 552 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.00 % minus 1.63 % = 0.37 %	3.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.34 % = -0.03 %	-1.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.17 % = -0.04 %	-5.42 %
Sell Signals - 552 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.05 % minus 1.63 % = 0.42 %	3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.52 % minus 0.34 % = 0.18 %	9.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.17 % = 0.10 %	13.31 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 774 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.99 % minus 1.63 % = 0.36 %	3.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.34 % = 0.21 %	10.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.17 % = 0.09 %	11.05 %
Sell Signals - 774 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.82 % minus 1.63 % = 0.19 %	1.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.34 % = 0.05 %	2.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.17 % = 0.01 %	1.71 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 314 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.74 % minus 1.63 % = 0.11 %	0.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.34 % = -0.27 %	-13.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.17 % = -0.34 %	-42.82 %
Sell Signals - 315 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.26 % minus 1.63 % = 0.63 %	5.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.34 % = 0.11 %	5.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.17 % = 0.09 %	11.40 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.99 % minus 1.63 % = -0.64 %	-5.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.34 % = -0.16 %	-8.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.10 %	-12.11 %
Sell Signals - 201 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.69 % minus 1.63 % = 0.06 %	0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.34 % = 0.00 %	-0.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.17 % = 0.11 %	14.55 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.28 % minus 1.63 % = -0.35 %	-2.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.34 % = -0.21 %	-10.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.99 % minus 0.17 % = -1.16 %	-147.65 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 1.63 % = -0.72 %	-6.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.29 % minus 0.34 % = -0.62 %	-31.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.61 % minus 0.17 % = -0.79 %	-99.88 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 189 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.26 % minus 1.63 % = -0.37 %	-3.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.34 % = -0.26 %	-13.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.17 % = 0.00 %	-0.57 %
Sell Signals - 157 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.59 % minus 1.63 % = -0.04 %	-0.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.07 % minus 0.34 % = -0.41 %	-20.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.27 %	-34.33 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.37 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.37 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.21 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -1.01 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.79 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

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