T Averages

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, T would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -3.00 % under the line.

T: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on T stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to T stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




T: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.82 % = -0.27 %-2.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.17 % = 0.78 %39.86 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.09 % = 0.97 %122.72 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.28 % minus 0.82 % = -3.10 %-26.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.74 % minus 0.17 % = -0.90 %-45.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.09 % = -0.43 %-54.00 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 194 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 0.82 % = 0.58 %4.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.17 % = 0.09 %4.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = 0.00 %-0.41 %
Sell Signals - 193 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.94 % minus 0.82 % = 0.12 %1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.17 % = 0.18 %9.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.09 % = 0.20 %25.13 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.82 % = -0.28 %-2.36 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.26 % minus 0.17 % = -0.43 %-21.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.37 % minus 0.09 % = -0.46 %-58.27 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.82 % = -1.21 %-10.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.17 % = -0.14 %-6.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.09 % = 0.01 %0.78 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 588 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.82 % = -0.16 %-1.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.17 % = 0.04 %2.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %5.78 %
Sell Signals - 588 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.82 % = -0.22 %-1.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.17 % = 0.08 %4.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.12 %14.83 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 767 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.82 % = -0.01 %-0.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.17 % = 0.13 %6.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %19.54 %
Sell Signals - 766 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.84 % minus 0.82 % = 0.02 %0.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.17 % = 0.12 %6.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %14.20 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 361 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.82 % = 0.06 %0.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.17 % = -0.01 %-0.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-1.84 %
Sell Signals - 360 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.82 % = 0.29 %2.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.17 % = -0.06 %-3.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-7.34 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 262 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.82 % = -0.20 %-1.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.17 % = -0.21 %-10.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.13 %-16.31 %
Sell Signals - 263 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.90 % minus 0.82 % = 0.08 %0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.17 % = -0.05 %-2.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-0.73 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 35 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.82 % = -0.53 %-4.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.09 %-4.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.10 %12.84 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.31 % minus 0.82 % = -2.13 %-18.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.17 % = 0.30 %14.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-8.12 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 211 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.82 % = -0.42 %-3.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.17 % = -0.13 %-6.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.01 %-1.47 %
Sell Signals - 190 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.82 % = 0.01 %0.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.17 % = -0.19 %-9.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.32 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.58 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -3.10 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.78 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.90 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.97 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.43 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for AT and T Stock Prices - T