Moving Average Indicators for T

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

T: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on T stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for T.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




Moving Average Convergence of AT and T
Companies In the News
In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)



MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.84 % = -0.09 %-0.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 0.17 % = 0.75 %37.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.09 % = 0.92 %116.47 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.93 % minus 0.84 % = -2.77 %-23.49 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.69 % minus 0.17 % = -0.86 %-43.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.32 % minus 0.09 % = -0.41 %-52.24 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 206 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.50 % minus 0.84 % = 0.66 %5.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.17 % = 0.11 %5.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.09 % = 0.01 %1.18 %
Sell Signals - 206 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.84 % = 0.21 %1.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.17 % = 0.19 %9.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.09 % = 0.21 %26.88 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.84 % = -0.29 %-2.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.17 % = -0.48 %-24.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.40 % minus 0.09 % = -0.48 %-61.32 %
Sell Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.84 % = -0.93 %-7.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.17 % = 0.03 %1.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.09 % = 0.17 %22.03 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 627 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.84 % = -0.18 %-1.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.17 % = 0.03 %1.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %4.81 %
Sell Signals - 627 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.84 % = -0.21 %-1.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.17 % = 0.07 %3.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %14.06 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 820 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.84 % = -0.01 %-0.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.17 % = 0.12 %6.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %18.49 %
Sell Signals - 819 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.85 % minus 0.84 % = 0.02 %0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.17 % = 0.11 %5.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.09 % = 0.10 %12.59 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 370 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.84 % = 0.16 %1.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.17 % = 0.04 %2.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.03 %3.56 %
Sell Signals - 370 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.20 % minus 0.84 % = 0.36 %3.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.17 % = -0.04 %-2.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.09 % = -0.03 %-4.24 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 282 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.84 % = -0.21 %-1.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.26 %-12.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.09 % = -0.18 %-23.11 %
Sell Signals - 282 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.84 % = 0.09 %0.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.17 % = -0.07 %-3.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.09 % = -0.02 %-1.93 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.84 % = -0.50 %-4.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.17 % = -0.16 %-8.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.09 % = 0.04 %5.54 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.24 % minus 0.84 % = -2.08 %-17.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.17 % = 0.09 %4.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.42 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 225 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.84 % = -0.35 %-2.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.17 % = -0.11 %-5.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %2.54 %
Sell Signals - 201 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.84 % = 0.15 %1.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.17 % = -0.18 %-9.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.76 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.66 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -2.77 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.75 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.86 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.92 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.41 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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AT and T Moving Averages - T