Moving Average Analysis of TSO

From the largest and most comprehensive Analysis Site on the web.

Breaking News
Free Reports    NUE | LEG | SBUX | UNP | STR | AW | SWN | FDO | QCOM | PRU | MET
Look for another Symbol?
Can't find your Company?
 

From the Weekend Report 9/3/2010: Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, TSO would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -4.00 % under the line.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Tesoro Corporation
General Market Conditions
Subscribe

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Tesoro Corporation:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to TSO stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to TSO stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




TSO: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Tuesday, September 07, 2010: We have news on Brocade Communications Systems, Inc., ticker symbol BRCD. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Apartment Investment and Management Co. and Mitsui & Company, Ltd..

From the News Archive: (9/3/2010 ) Bad news came from Hewlett Packard, News Corporation, Discovery Communications, Inc, and Electronic Data Systems.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

.
Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.35 % minus 0.99 % = 1.36 %11.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.35 % minus 0.20 % = 1.16 %58.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.99 % minus 0.10 % = 0.89 %113.21 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.91 % minus 0.99 % = 1.92 %16.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 0.20 % = 1.10 %56.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 0.10 % = 1.15 %146.47 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.99 % = -1.10 %-9.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.20 % = -0.04 %-1.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.10 % = 0.21 %27.23 %
Sell Signals - 188 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.10 % minus 0.99 % = 0.11 %0.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.20 % = 0.30 %15.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.10 % = 0.25 %32.04 %
.
Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 47 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.21 % minus 0.99 % = 0.22 %1.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.28 % minus 0.20 % = -0.47 %-24.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.10 % = -0.33 %-42.17 %
Sell Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.62 % minus 0.99 % = 1.63 %13.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.20 % = 0.15 %7.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.10 % = 0.60 %75.82 %
.
MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 627 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.99 % = -0.30 %-2.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.25 % minus 0.20 % = -0.45 %-22.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.10 % = -0.30 %-38.52 %
Sell Signals - 628 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.99 % = -0.13 %-1.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.20 % = -0.33 %-16.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.10 % = -0.27 %-34.27 %
.
MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 893 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.99 % = -0.21 %-1.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.20 % = -0.19 %-9.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.15 %-19.05 %
Sell Signals - 892 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.99 % = -0.21 %-1.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.20 % = -0.13 %-6.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-5.60 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 342 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.99 % = 0.02 %0.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.20 % = 0.23 %11.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.10 % = 0.09 %11.72 %
Sell Signals - 340 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.99 % = -0.81 %-6.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.20 % = -0.12 %-6.32 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.11 %-13.35 %
.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.99 % = -0.44 %-3.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.20 % = 0.00 %-0.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.10 % = 0.08 %10.46 %
Sell Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.99 % = -1.37 %-11.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.20 % = -0.16 %-8.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %-5.96 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.23 % minus 0.99 % = 1.24 %10.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.20 % = 0.15 %7.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.18 %-22.31 %
Sell Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.70 % minus 0.99 % = 1.71 %14.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.20 % = 0.52 %26.46 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.10 % = 0.33 %42.31 %
.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 219 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.61 % minus 0.99 % = 0.62 %5.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.87 % minus 0.20 % = 0.67 %34.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.10 % = 0.49 %61.82 %
Sell Signals - 200 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 0.99 % = 0.41 %3.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.20 % = -0.40 %-20.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.10 % = -0.29 %-37.45 %
.
The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.36 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.37 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 1.16 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.89 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.29 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



Today's Free Reports | Meet the Analysts | Member Sign In | Stock-Predictions dot Com Home Page

For Subscribers: Advanced Analysis of the Price Behavior Surface for Tesoro Corporation

Detailed Average Level Analysis for TSO :



Contents of non-member pages are delayed. New information may have voided the predictions shown here. Associates of Stock-Predictions.Com or Hybrid Technical may hold positions in issues covered here.

Our Pledge of Independence: We do not utilize any reporting or analysis that comes directly or indirectly from brokerage or banking firms.

Note: Free pages are for entertainment and academic purposes only. We do not advise anyone to buy or sell stocks or funds. We do not recommend the purchase or sale of this or any other issue. Research shows that most people who trade securities will lose money. These reports are not to be used for stock-picking or investment decision support. Any such use is strictly prohibited. Charts are provided by permission from Hybrid Technical. All Rights Reserved. All Content is Copyright 2010 by Stock-Predictions.Com
This site and Hybrid Technical shall not be liable for any errors in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Moving Average Convergence for Tesoro Corporation Stock Prices - TSO