Moving Average Analysis of TWX

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From the Weekend Report 6/19/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of AOL Time Warner
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for AOL Time Warner:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to TWX stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for TWX.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of AOL Time Warner
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Pitney Bowes Inc., ticker symbol PBI. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) A favorable event happened at The Travelers Companies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fiserv, Inc., MeadWestvaco Corp., and Nicor Inc..




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -3.64 % minus 2.57 % = -6.21 %-52.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.03 % minus 0.50 % = -1.54 %-78.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.63 % minus 0.25 % = -0.88 %-112.10 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.18 % minus 2.57 % = 0.60 %5.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.50 % = -0.59 %-29.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.25 % = -0.39 %-49.63 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 117 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.84 % minus 2.57 % = 0.26 %2.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.50 % = 0.21 %10.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.25 % = 0.09 %11.83 %
Sell Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.46 % minus 2.57 % = -0.11 %-0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.50 % = 0.07 %3.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.25 % = 0.21 %26.85 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 2.57 % = -2.02 %-17.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.50 % = 0.22 %10.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.25 % = 0.39 %49.19 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.18 % minus 2.57 % = -1.39 %-11.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.47 % minus 0.50 % = -0.97 %-49.35 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.25 % = -0.42 %-53.15 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 381 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.67 % minus 2.57 % = 0.10 %0.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 0.50 % = 0.01 %0.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.25 % = -0.16 %-19.82 %
Sell Signals - 381 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.94 % minus 2.57 % = 0.36 %3.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.50 % = 0.09 %4.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.25 % = 0.23 %29.30 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 512 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.51 % minus 2.57 % = -0.06 %-0.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.50 % = -0.02 %-1.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.25 % = 0.10 %12.82 %
Sell Signals - 512 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.67 % minus 2.57 % = 0.10 %0.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.59 % minus 0.50 % = 0.09 %4.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.25 % = 0.09 %10.80 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 212 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.26 % minus 2.57 % = 0.68 %5.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.50 % = 0.15 %7.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.25 % = 0.11 %14.10 %
Sell Signals - 211 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.09 % minus 2.57 % = 0.52 %4.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.50 % = -0.27 %-13.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.25 % = -0.21 %-26.41 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 140 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.41 % minus 2.57 % = -1.16 %-9.84 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.50 % = -0.15 %-7.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.25 % = -0.02 %-2.54 %
Sell Signals - 140 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 2.57 % = -1.78 %-15.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.50 % = -0.77 %-38.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.25 % = -0.43 %-54.53 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.24 % minus 2.57 % = -3.81 %-32.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.50 % = 0.52 %26.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.25 % = 0.36 %45.18 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 2.57 % = -2.47 %-20.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.03 % minus 0.50 % = -1.53 %-77.91 %
Future2SesAvgClose -1.07 % minus 0.25 % = -1.32 %-167.24 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 134 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.53 % minus 2.57 % = 0.96 %8.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.50 % = -0.34 %-17.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.25 % = -0.24 %-30.52 %
Sell Signals - 128 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 2.57 % = -1.17 %-9.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.50 % = -0.28 %-14.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.25 % = -0.17 %-21.69 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.96 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -2.47 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.52 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -1.53 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.39 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.32 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Analysis for TWX Stock Prices