Moving Average Analysis of TYC

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From the Weekend Report 12/19/2008: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

TYC: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on TYC stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for TYC.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




TYC: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, January 02, 2009: We have news on Intel, ticker symbol INTC. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Praxair, Inc. and Allegheny Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (12/31/2008 ) Favorable events happened at Fluor Corporation (NEW) and National City Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Office Depot, Inc. and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.12 % minus 0.73 % = -1.85 %-15.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.15 % = -0.44 %-22.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.50 % minus 0.08 % = -0.58 %-73.63 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.60 % minus 0.73 % = -1.33 %-11.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.15 % = -0.10 %-5.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.08 % = 0.04 %4.92 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.73 % = -0.21 %-1.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.15 % = -0.34 %-17.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %-12.78 %
Sell Signals - 157 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.73 % = -0.26 %-2.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.15 % = -0.49 %-24.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.08 % = -0.34 %-43.76 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.60 % minus 0.73 % = -1.34 %-11.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.37 % minus 0.15 % = -0.53 %-26.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.08 % = -0.75 %-95.10 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.73 % = -0.46 %-3.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.15 % = 0.05 %2.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.08 % = 0.05 %6.97 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 471 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.73 % = 0.30 %2.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.15 % = 0.02 %0.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %1.13 %
Sell Signals - 471 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 0.73 % = 0.56 %4.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 0.15 % = 0.19 %9.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.08 % = 0.12 %15.76 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 626 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.73 % = -0.12 %-0.98 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.15 % = -0.08 %-4.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %-12.18 %
Sell Signals - 626 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.73 % = -0.15 %-1.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.14 %-7.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.08 % = 0.04 %5.43 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.49 % minus 0.73 % = 0.76 %6.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.15 % = 0.31 %15.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.08 % = 0.11 %14.47 %
Sell Signals - 295 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.51 % minus 0.73 % = 0.78 %6.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.15 % = 0.21 %10.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.08 % = 0.09 %11.87 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 173 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.61 % minus 0.73 % = 0.87 %7.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.15 % = 0.27 %13.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.08 % = 0.10 %12.60 %
Sell Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 0.73 % = 0.66 %5.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.15 % = 0.30 %14.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.08 % = 0.12 %15.62 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 0.73 % = -1.25 %-10.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.15 % = -0.26 %-13.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.08 % = 0.37 %46.46 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.16 % minus 0.73 % = -1.90 %-16.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.15 % = 0.47 %23.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.08 % = 0.38 %48.38 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 198 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.73 % = -0.64 %-5.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.15 % = -0.22 %-11.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.10 %-13.29 %
Sell Signals - 152 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.73 % = 0.32 %2.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.15 % = 0.21 %10.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.08 % = 0.18 %22.94 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.87 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.90 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.31 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.49 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.37 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.34 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for Tyco