Moving Average Analysis of TYC

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: There has not been much change in the phase of the 200 day moving average since this time last week.

TYC: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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Different ways of averaging are tested on TYC stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for TYC.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




TYC: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and Martha Stewart. Meanwhile, bad news came from Patterson Companies, Inc. and LSI Corporation.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.12 % minus 0.89 % = -2.01 %-17.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.18 % = -0.47 %-24.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.50 % minus 0.09 % = -0.59 %-75.14 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.59 % minus 0.89 % = -1.47 %-12.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.18 % = 0.07 %3.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %29.10 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 166 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.89 % = -0.23 %-1.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.18 % = -0.30 %-15.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.06 %-8.15 %
Sell Signals - 165 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.55 % minus 0.89 % = -0.34 %-2.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.18 % = -0.40 %-20.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.09 % = -0.23 %-29.52 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.99 % minus 0.89 % = -1.88 %-15.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.18 % = -0.68 %-34.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.78 % minus 0.09 % = -0.87 %-110.50 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.89 % = -0.90 %-7.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.18 % = -0.06 %-2.94 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %-6.98 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 499 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.19 % minus 0.89 % = 0.30 %2.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.18 % = 0.06 %3.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %5.87 %
Sell Signals - 500 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.89 % = 0.48 %4.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.18 % = 0.13 %6.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.09 % = 0.09 %11.16 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 668 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.89 % = -0.11 %-0.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.18 % = -0.09 %-4.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.09 % = -0.09 %-11.08 %
Sell Signals - 667 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.80 % minus 0.89 % = -0.09 %-0.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.18 % = -0.08 %-4.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.09 % = 0.07 %8.64 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 316 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 0.89 % = 0.45 %3.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.18 % = 0.19 %9.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %16.79 %
Sell Signals - 315 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 0.89 % = 0.44 %3.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.18 % = 0.10 %5.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.09 % = 0.06 %7.57 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.89 % minus 0.89 % = 1.00 %8.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.18 % = 0.38 %19.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.14 %17.22 %
Sell Signals - 187 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.70 % minus 0.89 % = 0.82 %6.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.18 % = 0.42 %21.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.09 % = 0.16 %20.80 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.51 % minus 0.89 % = -1.40 %-11.85 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.18 % = -0.29 %-14.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.45 % minus 0.09 % = 0.35 %44.72 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.97 % minus 0.89 % = -1.86 %-15.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.18 % = 0.35 %17.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %28.65 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 213 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.89 % = -0.69 %-5.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.18 % = -0.26 %-13.21 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.09 % = -0.12 %-15.45 %
Sell Signals - 160 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.14 % minus 0.89 % = 0.25 %2.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.18 % = 0.20 %10.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %17.04 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.00 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.86 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.38 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.35 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.23 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.



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Moving Average Convergence for Tyco Stock Prices - TYC