Moving Average Indicators for UNP

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From the Weekend Report 2/26/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Union Pacific Corporation
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Union Pacific Corporation:

Different ways of averaging are tested on UNP stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for UNP.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Union Pacific Corporation
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Wednesday, March 10, 2010: We have news on Philip Morris, ticker symbol MO. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning PNC Financial Services and NiSource Inc..

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MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.81 % = 0.22 %1.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.35 % minus 0.16 % = 0.19 %9.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.08 % = 0.50 %62.96 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.81 % = -0.06 %-0.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.16 % = -0.06 %-3.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.15 %-18.84 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 220 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.81 % = 0.14 %1.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.16 % = 0.06 %3.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.04 %-4.88 %
Sell Signals - 221 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.81 % = -0.17 %-1.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.16 % = 0.15 %7.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.08 % = 0.14 %18.38 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.81 % = -0.18 %-1.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.16 % = -0.48 %-24.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.08 % = -0.12 %-15.13 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.81 % = -0.92 %-7.79 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.16 % = -0.83 %-42.38 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.65 % minus 0.08 % = -0.73 %-92.69 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 691 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.81 % = -0.03 %-0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.16 % = -0.01 %-0.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.08 % = 0.05 %6.08 %
Sell Signals - 691 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.81 % = -0.02 %-0.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.21 % minus 0.16 % = 0.04 %2.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.08 % = 0.06 %7.44 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 950 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.81 % = 0.15 %1.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.16 % = 0.00 %0.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.00 %0.37 %
Sell Signals - 950 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 0.81 % = 0.19 %1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.16 % = -0.01 %-0.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.05 %-6.74 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 415 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.88 % minus 0.81 % = 0.07 %0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.16 % = 0.14 %7.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.08 % = 0.17 %21.83 %
Sell Signals - 415 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.81 % = 0.15 %1.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-2.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.08 % = -0.08 %-10.69 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 293 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.81 % = -0.20 %-1.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.16 % = -0.05 %-2.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %0.74 %
Sell Signals - 293 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.81 % = -0.02 %-0.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.16 % = -0.07 %-3.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.07 %-9.35 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.25 % minus 0.81 % = 0.44 %3.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.16 % = -0.31 %-15.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.55 % minus 0.08 % = -0.63 %-79.84 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.11 % minus 0.81 % = 0.30 %2.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.40 % minus 0.16 % = 0.24 %12.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.08 % = -0.17 %-21.42 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 272 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.01 % minus 0.81 % = 0.20 %1.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.16 % = 0.02 %1.07 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.08 % = 0.07 %9.10 %
Sell Signals - 218 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.81 % = -0.10 %-0.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.05 % minus 0.16 % = -0.21 %-10.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.08 % = -0.06 %-7.49 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.92 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.19 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.83 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.50 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.73 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Analysis for UNP Stock Prices