Moving Average Indicators for URBN

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From the Weekend Report 11/12/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Urban Outfitters, Inc.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on URBN stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for URBN.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Friday, November 12, 2010: We have news on Cree, Inc., ticker symbol CREE. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Intel and PetSmart, Inc.

From the News Archive: (11/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Exxon Mobil, Ingersoll-Rand Company Limited, and Concur Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from International Game Technology.

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.39 % minus 1.90 % = -3.29 %	-27.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.64 % minus 0.41 % = -1.05 %	-53.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-2.50 % minus 0.20 % = -2.70 %	-343.17 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-3.78 % minus 1.90 % = -5.68 %	-48.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.86 % minus 0.41 % = -1.26 %	-64.13 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.32 % minus 0.20 % = -0.52 %	-65.57 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 126 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.81 % minus 1.90 % = -0.10 %	-0.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.41 % = 0.13 %	6.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.20 % = -0.09 %	-11.72 %
Sell Signals - 126 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.38 % minus 1.90 % = -0.52 %	-4.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 0.41 % = 0.34 %	17.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.40 % minus 0.20 % = 0.20 %	25.82 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.44 % minus 1.90 % = -0.46 %	-3.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.41 % = 0.15 %	7.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.86 % minus 0.20 % = -1.06 %	-134.85 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.82 % minus 1.90 % = -3.72 %	-31.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.33 % minus 0.41 % = -1.74 %	-88.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.45 % minus 0.20 % = -0.65 %	-82.87 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 410 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.33 % minus 1.90 % = 0.42 %	3.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 0.41 % = 0.41 %	20.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.20 % = 0.24 %	29.99 %
Sell Signals - 410 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.10 % minus 1.90 % = 0.20 %	1.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.69 % minus 0.41 % = 0.28 %	14.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.20 % = 0.28 %	35.52 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 547 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.69 % minus 1.90 % = -0.22 %	-1.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.41 % = 0.42 %	21.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.75 % minus 0.20 % = 0.55 %	69.74 %
Sell Signals - 546 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.46 % minus 1.90 % = -0.44 %	-3.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.41 % = -0.01 %	-0.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.20 % = -0.16 %	-20.79 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 250 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.97 % minus 1.90 % = 0.07 %	0.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.41 % = 0.06 %	3.06 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.20 % = 0.14 %	18.38 %
Sell Signals - 250 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.52 % minus 1.90 % = 0.62 %	5.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.55 % minus 0.41 % = 0.14 %	7.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.20 % = 0.08 %	10.78 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 162 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 1.90 % = -0.25 %	-2.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.41 % = -0.02 %	-0.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.45 % minus 0.20 % = 0.25 %	31.64 %
Sell Signals - 162 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.80 % minus 1.90 % = -0.11 %	-0.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.29 % minus 0.41 % = -0.70 %	-35.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.35 % minus 0.20 % = -0.55 %	-69.45 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.47 % minus 1.90 % = -3.38 %	-28.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.80 % minus 0.41 % = -2.20 %	-111.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.60 % minus 0.20 % = -1.80 %	-228.58 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-2.67 % minus 1.90 % = -4.58 %	-38.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.41 % = -0.02 %	-0.96 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.20 % = 0.63 %	79.46 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 149 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.22 % minus 1.90 % = 0.32 %	2.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.41 % = -0.28 %	-14.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.20 % = -0.16 %	-20.26 %
Sell Signals - 109 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.93 % minus 1.90 % = 0.02 %	0.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.41 % = -0.02 %	-0.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.20 % = -0.07 %	-8.96 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.42 % from the MACD 12/26 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -5.68 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.42 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -1.74 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.55 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal,and the best sell signal was -0.65 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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Urban Outfitters, Inc. Moving Averages - URBN