Moving Average Analysis of UST

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From the Weekend Report 4/24/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

UST: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to UST stock prices. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for UST.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Companies In the News

Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.85 % minus 1.31 % = -0.46 %	-3.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.67 % minus 0.26 % = -0.93 %	-47.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.84 % minus 0.13 % = -0.97 %	-122.78 %
Sell Signals - 17 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.16 % minus 1.31 % = -0.15 %	-1.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.24 % minus 0.26 % = -0.50 %	-25.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.25 % minus 0.13 % = -0.38 %	-48.64 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 144 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.48 % minus 1.31 % = 0.17 %	1.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.26 % = 0.12 %	6.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.13 % = 0.16 %	20.94 %
Sell Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.39 % minus 1.31 % = 0.08 %	0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.26 % = 0.02 %	1.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.01 %	-0.91 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 1.31 % = -0.55 %	-4.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.26 % = 0.28 %	14.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.13 % = 0.22 %	28.24 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.50 % minus 1.31 % = 0.19 %	1.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.26 % = 0.03 %	1.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.25 % minus 0.13 % = 0.12 %	15.33 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 519 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.39 % minus 1.31 % = 0.08 %	0.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.26 % = 0.10 %	5.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.13 % = 0.09 %	10.84 %
Sell Signals - 518 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.35 % minus 1.31 % = 0.04 %	0.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.26 % = 0.06 %	2.80 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %	6.75 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 722 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 1.31 % = -0.06 %	-0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.26 % = 0.04 %	1.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.13 % = 0.04 %	5.40 %
Sell Signals - 721 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.11 % minus 1.31 % = -0.20 %	-1.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.26 % = -0.10 %	-5.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.07 %	-8.32 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 289 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.60 % minus 1.31 % = 0.29 %	2.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.26 % = -0.07 %	-3.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.13 % = -0.13 %	-16.28 %
Sell Signals - 290 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.89 % minus 1.31 % = 0.58 %	4.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.26 % = 0.27 %	13.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.13 % = 0.06 %	7.80 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 185 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.33 % minus 1.31 % = 0.02 %	0.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.26 % = -0.19 %	-9.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.13 % = -0.22 %	-27.67 %
Sell Signals - 186 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.57 % minus 1.31 % = 0.26 %	2.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.26 % = 0.21 %	10.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %	16.72 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.31 % = -0.17 %	-1.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.26 % = 0.09 %	4.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.46 % minus 0.13 % = 0.33 %	41.35 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.20 % minus 1.31 % = 0.89 %	7.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.48 % minus 0.26 % = 0.22 %	11.27 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.13 % = -0.35 %	-44.66 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 195 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.52 % minus 1.31 % = 0.21 %	1.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.26 % = 0.12 %	6.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.13 % = 0.04 %	4.46 %
Sell Signals - 133 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.00 % minus 1.31 % = -0.31 %	-2.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.26 % = -0.32 %	-16.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.25 %	-31.98 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.29 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -0.31 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.28 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.50 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.33 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.

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Moving Average Indicators for UST Inc.