Moving Average Analysis of VLO

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: The current price is 14.00 % above the 200 bar SMA and it has increased the distance since last week. This represents phase 1 of the MACD cycle.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Valero Energy Corporation
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Valero Energy Corporation:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to VLO stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to VLO stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Valero Energy Corporation
Companies In the News
Thursday, March 18, 2010: We have news on MicroSoft, ticker symbol MSFT. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Mylan Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/17/2010 ) Favorable events happened at LoJack Corp and Martha Stewart. Meanwhile, bad news came from Patterson Companies, Inc. and LSI Corporation.




MACD analysis is dangerously suited for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals based on moving averages, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 1.40 % = -1.29 %-10.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.27 % = -0.45 %-22.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.13 % = -0.36 %-45.36 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.23 % minus 1.40 % = 0.84 %7.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.27 % = -0.50 %-25.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.13 % = -0.22 %-28.15 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.34 % minus 1.40 % = -1.06 %-8.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.27 % = -0.42 %-21.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.17 %-21.67 %
Sell Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 1.40 % = 0.03 %0.28 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.27 % = -0.13 %-6.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.13 % = -0.23 %-29.38 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.76 % minus 1.40 % = -2.15 %-18.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.27 % = -0.69 %-34.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.13 % = -0.23 %-29.33 %
Sell Signals - 43 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 1.40 % = -1.25 %-10.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.72 % minus 0.27 % = -0.99 %-50.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.58 % minus 0.13 % = -0.72 %-91.16 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 606 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 1.40 % = -0.43 %-3.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.27 % = -0.17 %-8.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.13 % = -0.10 %-12.88 %
Sell Signals - 607 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.02 % minus 1.40 % = -0.37 %-3.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.27 % = -0.22 %-11.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.10 % minus 0.13 % = -0.23 %-29.77 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 901 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 1.40 % = -0.32 %-2.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.27 % = -0.10 %-4.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.13 % = -0.05 %-6.86 %
Sell Signals - 901 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 1.40 % = -0.39 %-3.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.27 % = -0.23 %-11.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.20 %-25.76 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 359 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.00 % minus 1.40 % = -0.40 %-3.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.27 % = 0.05 %2.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.13 % = 0.07 %8.47 %
Sell Signals - 358 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 1.40 % = -0.80 %-6.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.27 % = 0.10 %5.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.13 % = 0.09 %11.08 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 1.40 % = 0.00 %0.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.27 % = 0.01 %0.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.13 % = -0.08 %-9.62 %
Sell Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.51 % minus 1.40 % = -0.89 %-7.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.27 % = -0.11 %-5.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.13 % = 0.07 %8.76 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.72 % minus 1.40 % = -3.11 %-26.35 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.91 % minus 0.27 % = -1.17 %-59.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.67 % minus 0.13 % = -0.81 %-102.26 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.92 % minus 1.40 % = -0.48 %-4.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.27 % = -0.50 %-25.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.50 % minus 0.13 % = -0.63 %-80.09 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 243 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 1.40 % = -0.05 %-0.46 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.27 % = 0.17 %8.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %17.05 %
Sell Signals - 201 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.51 % minus 1.40 % = 0.11 %0.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.27 % = 0.03 %1.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.13 % = 0.10 %13.18 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.00 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.,and the best sell signal for was -1.25 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.17 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.99 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.13 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -0.72 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for Valero Energy Corporation