Moving Average Indicators for VZ

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with VZ 4.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Verizon
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Different ways of averaging are tested on VZ stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for VZ.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.




VZ: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.65 % minus 0.74 % = 0.91 %7.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.78 % minus 0.15 % = 0.63 %32.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.52 % minus 0.08 % = 0.44 %56.46 %
Sell Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.76 % minus 0.74 % = -1.50 %-12.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.15 % = -0.37 %-18.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.32 % minus 0.08 % = -0.40 %-50.98 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.29 % minus 0.74 % = 0.56 %4.71 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.43 % minus 0.15 % = 0.28 %14.34 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.08 % = 0.14 %18.41 %
Sell Signals - 178 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.74 % = 0.16 %1.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.15 % = -0.02 %-0.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.04 %-5.63 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.23 % minus 0.74 % = 0.49 %4.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.15 % = 0.11 %5.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.08 % = 0.00 %0.35 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.74 % = -0.60 %-5.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.15 % = 0.04 %2.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %1.03 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 619 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.74 % = -0.07 %-0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.15 % = -0.07 %-3.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.06 %-7.95 %
Sell Signals - 618 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.66 % minus 0.74 % = -0.07 %-0.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.15 % = -0.01 %-0.47 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.08 % = -0.03 %-3.18 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 855 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.69 % minus 0.74 % = -0.04 %-0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.15 % = 0.03 %1.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.08 % = 0.01 %1.32 %
Sell Signals - 854 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.74 % = -0.06 %-0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.15 % = -0.07 %-3.62 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.08 % = -0.05 %-6.11 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 336 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.74 % = -0.20 %-1.72 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.15 % = -0.04 %-2.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.08 % = 0.09 %10.82 %
Sell Signals - 336 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.65 % minus 0.74 % = -0.08 %-0.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.15 % = -0.09 %-4.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.08 % = -0.09 %-10.89 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 239 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.74 % = -0.77 %-6.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.15 % = -0.45 %-22.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.08 % = -0.28 %-35.52 %
Sell Signals - 240 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.74 % = -0.47 %-3.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.15 % = -0.15 %-7.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.06 % minus 0.08 % = -0.13 %-17.10 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.74 % = 0.05 %0.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.15 % = -0.18 %-9.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.08 % = -0.01 %-1.18 %
Sell Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.74 % = -0.71 %-6.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.15 % = -0.04 %-2.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.08 % = -0.30 %-38.54 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 225 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.74 % = 0.12 %1.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.15 % = 0.02 %1.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %4.09 %
Sell Signals - 197 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.89 % minus 0.74 % = 0.15 %1.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.15 % = -0.04 %-1.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.08 % = 0.03 %4.27 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.91 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.50 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.63 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.44 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.40 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Verizon Moving Averages - VZ