Moving Average Analysis of WAT

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of Waters Corporation
General Market Conditions
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Different ways of averaging are tested on WAT stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for WAT.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.




WAT: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Convergys Corporation and Coach, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Fluor Corporation (NEW), Automatic Data Processing, and Home Depot.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.67 % minus 1.72 % = -4.39 %-37.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.31 % minus 0.34 % = -0.65 %-32.98 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.76 % minus 0.17 % = 0.59 %74.92 %
Sell Signals - 11 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.46 % minus 1.72 % = 0.73 %6.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.34 % = 1.03 %52.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.17 % = 0.37 %47.19 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 119 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.97 % minus 1.72 % = 1.24 %10.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.33 % minus 0.34 % = 0.99 %50.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.17 % = 0.32 %40.31 %
Sell Signals - 118 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.24 % minus 1.72 % = -0.48 %-4.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.11 % minus 0.34 % = -0.22 %-11.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.17 % = -0.09 %-11.97 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -2.12 % minus 1.72 % = -3.84 %-32.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose -1.09 % minus 0.34 % = -1.43 %-72.63 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.17 % = -0.66 %-83.84 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.57 % minus 1.72 % = 1.85 %15.63 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.34 % = 0.38 %19.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.79 % minus 0.17 % = 0.62 %79.22 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 323 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 1.72 % = -0.66 %-5.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.34 % = -0.18 %-9.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.17 % = -0.25 %-31.47 %
Sell Signals - 323 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 1.72 % = -0.29 %-2.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.34 % = 0.23 %11.90 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.17 % = 0.25 %32.22 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 426 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.68 % minus 1.72 % = -0.05 %-0.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.34 % = -0.07 %-3.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.17 % = 0.13 %16.50 %
Sell Signals - 425 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.60 % minus 1.72 % = -0.12 %-1.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.34 % = -0.32 %-16.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.17 % = -0.15 %-18.94 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 207 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.65 % minus 1.72 % = -0.08 %-0.65 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.34 % = 0.37 %18.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.17 % = 0.47 %60.22 %
Sell Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.67 % minus 1.72 % = -0.05 %-0.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.34 % = 0.00 %-0.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.17 % = -0.15 %-19.09 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 114 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.99 % minus 1.72 % = 0.26 %2.24 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.34 % = 0.23 %11.61 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.17 % = 0.03 %3.65 %
Sell Signals - 115 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.36 % minus 1.72 % = -0.36 %-3.07 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.34 % = -0.26 %-13.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.32 % minus 0.17 % = -0.49 %-62.09 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 10 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -1.89 % minus 1.72 % = -3.61 %-30.59 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.61 % minus 0.34 % = 0.27 %13.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.17 % = 0.03 %4.06 %
Sell Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 4.93 % minus 1.72 % = 3.20 %27.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.34 % = -0.01 %-0.43 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.17 % = -0.50 %-63.74 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 130 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.28 % minus 1.72 % = 0.55 %4.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.34 % = -0.31 %-15.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.17 % = -0.18 %-23.48 %
Sell Signals - 90 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.07 % minus 1.72 % = 0.34 %2.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.53 % minus 0.34 % = 0.19 %9.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.17 % = 0.29 %36.67 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.24 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.48 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.99 % from the Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.32 % from the MACD 12/26 Signal.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.59 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.50 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..



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Moving Average Convergence for Waters Corporation Stock Prices - WAT