WFMI Averages

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From the Weekend Report 3/12/2010: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

WFMI: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on WFMI stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to WFMI stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Wednesday, March 17, 2010: An unfavorable condition has developed with Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc., ticker symbol CCE. Also, there are breaking events concerning ConocoPhillips (COP) and CONSOL Energy Inc. (CNX)

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.62 % minus 1.40 % = 1.22 %	10.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.60 % minus 0.27 % = 0.33 %	16.89 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.73 % minus 0.14 % = 0.60 %	76.01 %
Sell Signals - 16 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 1.40 % = -0.97 %	-8.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.13 % minus 0.27 % = -0.14 %	-7.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.14 % = 0.43 %	55.10 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 135 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.47 % minus 1.40 % = 1.08 %	9.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.72 % minus 0.27 % = 0.46 %	23.19 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.14 % = 0.36 %	45.74 %
Sell Signals - 134 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.10 % minus 1.40 % = 0.71 %	5.97 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.27 % = 0.53 %	27.05 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.54 % minus 0.14 % = 0.41 %	51.83 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.65 % minus 1.40 % = 0.25 %	2.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.91 % minus 0.27 % = -1.18 %	-59.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.00 % minus 0.14 % = -1.13 %	-143.95 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.50 % minus 1.40 % = 1.11 %	9.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.07 % minus 0.27 % = 0.81 %	41.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.84 % minus 0.14 % = 0.71 %	89.73 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 384 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.94 % minus 1.40 % = 0.55 %	4.62 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.27 % = 0.44 %	22.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.14 % = 0.31 %	38.85 %
Sell Signals - 383 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.64 % minus 1.40 % = 0.24 %	2.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.27 % = -0.02 %	-1.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.14 % = -0.06 %	-7.31 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 549 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.36 % minus 1.40 % = -0.03 %	-0.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.27 % = 0.10 %	4.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.14 % = 0.03 %	4.30 %
Sell Signals - 549 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.33 % minus 1.40 % = -0.07 %	-0.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.27 % = 0.10 %	4.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.14 % = -0.05 %	-6.59 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 223 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.17 % minus 1.40 % = -0.22 %	-1.89 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.27 % = -0.17 %	-8.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.14 % = -0.18 %	-22.77 %
Sell Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.98 % minus 1.40 % = -0.41 %	-3.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.27 % = -0.39 %	-19.92 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.31 % minus 0.14 % = -0.45 %	-56.88 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 119 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.73 % minus 1.40 % = 0.33 %	2.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.27 % = 0.11 %	5.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.14 % = 0.10 %	12.14 %
Sell Signals - 119 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.78 % minus 1.40 % = -0.62 %	-5.21 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.34 % minus 0.27 % = -0.61 %	-30.81 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.04 % minus 0.14 % = -0.18 %	-22.84 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 18 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	4.06 % minus 1.40 % = 2.66 %	22.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.18 % minus 0.27 % = 0.91 %	46.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.93 % minus 0.14 % = 0.79 %	100.45 %
Sell Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.19 % minus 1.40 % = -1.59 %	-13.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.53 % minus 0.27 % = 0.26 %	13.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.02 % minus 0.14 % = -0.15 %	-19.21 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 146 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.40 % minus 1.40 % = 1.00 %	8.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.27 % = 0.31 %	15.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.14 % = 0.09 %	11.50 %
Sell Signals - 123 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.52 % minus 1.40 % = 0.12 %	1.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.39 % minus 0.27 % = 0.12 %	6.15 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.12 % minus 0.14 % = -0.26 %	-32.67 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.66 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -1.59 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.91 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.61 % from the Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.79 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.45 % from the Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg..

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