WMB Averages

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The current price is 8.00 % above the 200 bar SMA and it has increased the distance since last week. This represents phase 1 of the MACD cycle.

WMB: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.

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Different ways of averaging are tested on WMB stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for WMB.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman Fosback pointed out that a legitimate signal should be one that is clearly evident through a variety of averaging methods.

Moving Average Convergence of Williams Companies, Inc.

	Companies In the News
	In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 20 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 1.47 % = -1.12 %	-9.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.68 % minus 0.32 % = -1.00 %	-50.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.48 % minus 0.15 % = -1.63 %	-206.91 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.79 % minus 1.47 % = 1.33 %	11.22 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.32 % = -0.27 %	-13.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.15 % = 0.15 %	19.03 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 211 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.36 % minus 1.47 % = -0.10 %	-0.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.17 % minus 0.32 % = -0.49 %	-25.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.28 % minus 0.15 % = -0.44 %	-55.64 %
Sell Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.93 % minus 1.47 % = -0.54 %	-4.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.32 % = -0.27 %	-13.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.08 % minus 0.15 % = -0.23 %	-29.62 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.41 % minus 1.47 % = -0.05 %	-0.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.32 % = 0.10 %	5.20 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.15 % = 0.34 %	43.33 %
Sell Signals - 32 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.45 % minus 1.47 % = -0.02 %	-0.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.99 % minus 0.32 % = -1.31 %	-66.48 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.79 % minus 0.15 % = -0.94 %	-119.92 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 694 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.49 % minus 1.47 % = 0.02 %	0.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.32 % = -0.08 %	-3.88 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.10 % minus 0.15 % = -0.05 %	-6.71 %
Sell Signals - 694 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.83 % minus 1.47 % = 0.36 %	3.06 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.59 % minus 0.32 % = 0.27 %	13.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.15 % = 0.21 %	26.20 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 912 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.53 % minus 1.47 % = 0.06 %	0.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.32 % = 0.00 %	-0.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.15 % = 0.03 %	3.82 %
Sell Signals - 911 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.38 % minus 1.47 % = -0.08 %	-0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.32 % = -0.02 %	-0.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.15 % = 0.08 %	9.59 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 401 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 1.47 % = -0.66 %	-5.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.23 % minus 0.32 % = -0.09 %	-4.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.15 % minus 0.15 % = 0.00 %	-0.38 %
Sell Signals - 400 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.06 % minus 1.47 % = -0.40 %	-3.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.18 % minus 0.32 % = -0.14 %	-6.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.15 % = -0.07 %	-8.80 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 255 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 1.47 % = -0.21 %	-1.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.35 % minus 0.32 % = 0.03 %	1.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.15 % = 0.03 %	4.30 %
Sell Signals - 256 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.42 % minus 1.47 % = -0.05 %	-0.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.31 % minus 0.32 % = -0.01 %	-0.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.28 % minus 0.15 % = 0.13 %	16.33 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 25 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 1.47 % = -0.70 %	-5.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.18 % minus 0.32 % = -0.49 %	-25.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.15 % = -0.25 %	-32.04 %
Sell Signals - 21 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.18 % minus 1.47 % = 1.72 %	14.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.07 % minus 0.32 % = -0.25 %	-12.82 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.26 % minus 0.15 % = -0.42 %	-53.06 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 269 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.60 % minus 1.47 % = 0.13 %	1.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.50 % minus 0.32 % = 0.18 %	9.04 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.15 % = 0.17 %	21.07 %
Sell Signals - 191 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.82 % minus 1.47 % = -0.64 %	-5.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.09 % minus 0.32 % = -0.41 %	-20.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.02 % minus 0.15 % = -0.14 %	-17.41 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.13 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal for was -0.64 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.18 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.,and the best sell signal was -1.31 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.34 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.94 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

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