XEL Averages

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From the Weekend Report 1/22/2010: XEL is now in phase two of the oscillation cycle around the 200 session average. The price is 10.00 % above the line, but some convergence has taken place during the week.

XEL: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
General Market Conditions
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Xcel Energy Inc.:

Different ways of averaging are tested on XEL stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The effectiveness of these methods as applied to XEL stock price trend evaluation is tested on the next page.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. It is always possible to fine tune an exponential or other weighted average so that it seems to outperform a simple average in a given situation. However, over-tuning can increase false and misleading indicators. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




Moving Average Convergence of Xcel Energy Inc.
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Marathon Oil Corporation and Pactiv Corporation.

From the News Archive: (2/5/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Wells Fargo & Company and Regions Financial Corporation. Meanwhile, bad news came from Genzyme Corporation and Archer-Daniels-Midland.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.57 % minus 0.66 % = -0.09 %-0.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.13 % = 0.00 %0.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.07 % = 0.00 %-0.33 %
Sell Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.66 % = -0.66 %-5.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.13 % = 0.10 %4.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.07 % = -0.22 %-28.14 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.66 % = 0.01 %0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.13 % = 0.03 %1.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.07 % = 0.04 %4.65 %
Sell Signals - 169 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.66 % = -0.28 %-2.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.13 % = -0.16 %-8.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.07 % = -0.15 %-18.95 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.22 % minus 0.66 % = 0.56 %4.73 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.13 % = 0.44 %22.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.07 % = 0.21 %26.09 %
Sell Signals - 44 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.66 % = 0.04 %0.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.26 %-13.08 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.18 % minus 0.07 % = -0.24 %-31.04 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 579 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.83 % minus 0.66 % = 0.17 %1.45 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.13 % = 0.14 %6.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.19 % minus 0.07 % = 0.12 %15.54 %
Sell Signals - 579 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.66 % = 0.28 %2.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.32 % minus 0.13 % = 0.19 %9.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.07 % = 0.11 %14.59 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 806 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.66 % = 0.02 %0.20 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %6.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.14 % minus 0.07 % = 0.07 %9.14 %
Sell Signals - 806 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.66 % = -0.03 %-0.23 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.13 % = -0.01 %-0.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.01 % minus 0.07 % = -0.06 %-7.69 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 315 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.66 % = -0.33 %-2.76 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.13 % = -0.09 %-4.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.04 % minus 0.07 % = -0.10 %-13.06 %
Sell Signals - 315 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.49 % minus 0.66 % = -0.17 %-1.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.18 % minus 0.13 % = 0.05 %2.56 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.07 % = 0.13 %16.81 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.66 % = -0.10 %-0.82 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.13 % = -0.08 %-4.28 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.07 % = -0.14 %-17.69 %
Sell Signals - 224 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.66 % = 0.04 %0.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.13 % = 0.04 %2.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.07 % = 0.13 %17.08 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.66 % = 0.40 %3.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.13 % = 0.09 %4.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.07 % = 0.17 %21.05 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.66 % = -0.49 %-4.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.07 % minus 0.13 % = -0.07 %-3.42 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.07 % = -0.02 %-2.01 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 208 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.50 % minus 0.66 % = -0.16 %-1.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.13 % = -0.12 %-5.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.07 % = -0.05 %-5.92 %
Sell Signals - 156 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.38 % minus 0.66 % = -0.27 %-2.32 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.13 % = -0.12 %-5.93 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.07 % = -0.03 %-4.35 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 0.56 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -0.66 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.44 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.26 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.21 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.24 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.



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Xcel Energy Inc. Moving Averages - XEL