Moving Average Indicators for XL

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From the Weekend Report 7/23/2010: Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is 0.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week.

Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart. of XL Capital Ltd.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for XL Capital Ltd.:

This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to XL stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for XL.

The 200 session average is red, the 20 bar, green. The un-sophisticated moving averages plotted here are un-weighted, but they still may return better results than many of the more popular, highly tuned averages seen in some of the following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




XL: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Friday, July 30, 2010: We have news on National Semiconductor Corporation, ticker symbol NSM. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Tenet Healthcare Corporation and Janus Capital Group Inc..

From the News Archive: (7/30/2010 ) A favorable event happened at Akamai Technologies, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Chemical Company, Motorola, and Automatic Data Processing.




MACD analysis would appear perfect for overtuning, since it may use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. In addition to crossover signals from various moving averages, analysts frequently add a trigger line based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 3.39 % minus 0.77 % = 2.62 %22.14 %
Future5SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.19 % = 0.86 %43.58 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.48 % minus 0.10 % = 0.38 %48.10 %
Sell Signals - 22 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.96 % minus 0.77 % = -1.73 %-14.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.95 % minus 0.19 % = -1.14 %-58.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.96 % minus 0.10 % = -1.06 %-135.18 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.08 % minus 0.77 % = 0.31 %2.61 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.03 % minus 0.19 % = -0.22 %-11.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.42 % minus 0.10 % = -0.52 %-66.15 %
Sell Signals - 143 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.47 % minus 0.77 % = -0.31 %-2.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.28 % minus 0.19 % = -0.47 %-23.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.23 % minus 0.10 % = -0.33 %-42.18 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 39 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.50 % minus 0.77 % = 0.73 %6.17 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.19 % = 0.23 %11.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.04 % minus 0.10 % = -0.06 %-7.56 %
Sell Signals - 38 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.77 % = -0.72 %-6.10 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.19 % = 0.53 %26.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.95 % minus 0.10 % = 0.85 %107.98 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 433 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.77 % = -0.46 %-3.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.19 % = -0.27 %-13.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.20 % minus 0.10 % = -0.30 %-37.64 %
Sell Signals - 433 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.58 % minus 0.77 % = -0.19 %-1.64 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %1.52 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %18.04 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 575 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.62 % minus 0.77 % = -0.15 %-1.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.28 % minus 0.19 % = 0.09 %4.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %20.87 %
Sell Signals - 575 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.77 % = -0.47 %-4.00 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.19 % = -0.31 %-15.85 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.10 % = -0.25 %-32.22 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 248 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.77 % = -0.41 %-3.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.38 % minus 0.19 % = -0.58 %-29.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.10 % = -0.40 %-50.46 %
Sell Signals - 248 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.77 % = -0.09 %-0.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.29 % minus 0.19 % = -0.48 %-24.51 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.10 % = -0.23 %-29.19 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 173 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.42 % minus 0.77 % = -0.36 %-3.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.19 % = -0.41 %-20.64 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.07 % minus 0.10 % = -0.17 %-21.94 %
Sell Signals - 174 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.77 % = -0.40 %-3.41 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.30 % minus 0.19 % = -0.49 %-24.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.19 % minus 0.10 % = -0.29 %-37.44 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.04 % minus 0.77 % = 1.26 %10.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.21 % minus 0.19 % = -0.40 %-20.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.33 % minus 0.10 % = -0.43 %-54.60 %
Sell Signals - 23 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.81 % minus 0.77 % = -1.58 %-13.38 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.19 % = -0.28 %-14.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.12 % minus 0.10 % = -0.22 %-28.26 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 158 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.77 % = 0.13 %1.12 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.15 % minus 0.19 % = -0.34 %-17.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.27 % minus 0.10 % = -0.37 %-46.66 %
Sell Signals - 141 instances
Future30SesAvgClose -0.49 % minus 0.77 % = -1.27 %-10.75 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.19 % = -0.58 %-29.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.13 % minus 0.10 % = -0.24 %-29.88 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 2.62 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal for was -1.73 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.86 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.14 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.38 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -1.06 % from the Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence.



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Moving Average Indicators for XL Capital Ltd.