Moving Average Analysis of XOM

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From the Weekend Report 6/26/2009: The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week.

XOM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Exxon Mobil:

Different ways of averaging are tested on XOM stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for XOM.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




XOM: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Wednesday, July 01, 2009: We have news on Public Service Enterprise Group Inc., ticker symbol PEG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning The Travelers Companies, Inc. and Kellogg Company.

From the News Archive: (7/1/2009 ) Favorable events happened at Allegheny Energy, Inc., Bank of America Corporation, and American International Group, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Lexmark International, Inc..




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.82 % minus 0.97 % = 0.85 %7.19 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.56 % minus 0.19 % = 0.37 %18.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.10 % = 0.36 %45.30 %
Sell Signals - 26 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.23 % minus 0.97 % = -0.74 %-6.27 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.19 % = -0.33 %-16.76 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.10 % = -0.05 %-6.24 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.40 % minus 0.97 % = 0.43 %3.67 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.36 % minus 0.19 % = 0.16 %8.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %19.73 %
Sell Signals - 222 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.86 % minus 0.97 % = -0.10 %-0.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.19 % = -0.16 %-8.16 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.01 % minus 0.10 % = -0.11 %-13.90 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.68 % minus 0.97 % = 0.71 %6.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.19 % = 0.71 %36.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.10 % = 0.67 %84.73 %
Sell Signals - 48 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.97 % = -0.88 %-7.42 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.05 % minus 0.19 % = -0.14 %-7.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %20.15 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 803 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.97 % = 0.01 %0.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.04 %-1.97 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-5.36 %
Sell Signals - 803 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.91 % minus 0.97 % = -0.05 %-0.44 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.03 %-1.70 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.03 % minus 0.10 % = -0.07 %-8.81 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 1094 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.06 % minus 0.97 % = 0.09 %0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.19 % = 0.06 %3.10 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.15 % minus 0.10 % = 0.05 %6.32 %
Sell Signals - 1093 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.03 % minus 0.97 % = 0.06 %0.51 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.22 % minus 0.19 % = 0.03 %1.50 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %2.87 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 476 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.67 % minus 0.97 % = -0.30 %-2.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.22 % minus 0.19 % = -0.41 %-21.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.17 % minus 0.10 % = -0.27 %-34.43 %
Sell Signals - 476 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.39 % minus 0.97 % = 0.42 %3.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.19 % = 0.11 %5.39 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.10 % = 0.10 %12.56 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 344 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.70 % minus 0.97 % = -0.27 %-2.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.09 % minus 0.19 % = -0.28 %-14.26 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.18 %-22.89 %
Sell Signals - 344 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.43 % minus 0.97 % = 0.47 %3.96 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.19 % = 0.26 %13.33 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.31 % minus 0.10 % = 0.21 %27.00 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 30 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.54 % minus 0.97 % = 1.57 %13.30 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.19 % = 0.40 %20.55 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.24 % minus 0.10 % = 0.14 %17.98 %
Sell Signals - 33 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.75 % minus 0.97 % = -0.22 %-1.83 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.10 % minus 0.19 % = -0.09 %-4.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.12 % minus 0.10 % = 0.02 %2.14 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 294 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.97 % = 0.01 %0.09 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.19 % = 0.17 %8.75 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.29 % minus 0.10 % = 0.19 %23.95 %
Sell Signals - 192 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.60 % minus 0.97 % = -0.36 %-3.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.39 % minus 0.19 % = -0.58 %-29.60 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.34 % minus 0.10 % = -0.44 %-56.39 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.57 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.88 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.71 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.58 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.67 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.44 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Moving Average Convergence for Exxon Mobil Stock Prices - XOM