Moving Average Analysis of XOM

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From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with XOM 11.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week.

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This page looks at the predictive abilities of different methods of averaging applied to XOM stock prices. An infinite selection of moving average techniques is available, including but not limited to moving weighted and exponentional averages and MACD indicators of various flavors.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for XOM.

Red is the 200 bar SMA and Green is the 20 bar average. The Simple Moving Averages above are un-weighted. While unsophisticated, they frequently yield better results than some of the more highly tuned methods examined in following sections. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. A good un-ambiguous signal will be noticable through a variety of averaging methods, including some of the most simple.

	Companies In the News
	Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.

MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence, or MACD, produces buy or sell signal that are color tinted here.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 29 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.43 % minus 0.92 % = 0.51 %	4.33 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.38 % minus 0.18 % = 0.20 %	10.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.09 % = 0.28 %	35.51 %
Sell Signals - 28 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.11 % minus 0.92 % = -0.80 %	-6.81 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.29 % minus 0.18 % = -0.48 %	-24.25 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.09 % = -0.19 %	-24.06 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 232 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.33 % minus 0.92 % = 0.42 %	3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.18 % = 0.14 %	7.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.09 % = 0.17 %	20.97 %
Sell Signals - 232 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.92 % = -0.12 %	-0.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.08 % minus 0.18 % = -0.10 %	-5.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.04 % minus 0.09 % = -0.05 %	-6.93 %
	.
Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 55 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.24 % minus 0.92 % = 0.33 %	2.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.66 % minus 0.18 % = 0.47 %	24.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.09 % = 0.52 %	66.41 %
Sell Signals - 54 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.27 % minus 0.92 % = -1.19 %	-10.03 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.00 % minus 0.18 % = -0.18 %	-9.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.09 % = 0.11 %	13.34 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Divergence	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 844 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.91 % minus 0.92 % = -0.01 %	-0.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.18 % = -0.05 %	-2.37 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %	-4.77 %
Sell Signals - 844 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.88 % minus 0.92 % = -0.04 %	-0.34 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.17 % minus 0.18 % = -0.01 %	-0.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.06 % minus 0.09 % = -0.04 %	-4.81 %
	.
MACD 12/26 Signal	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 1145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.98 % minus 0.92 % = 0.06 %	0.54 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.18 % = 0.06 %	2.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.09 % = 0.05 %	6.32 %
Sell Signals - 1145 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.96 % minus 0.92 % = 0.04 %	0.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.21 % minus 0.18 % = 0.02 %	1.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.09 % = 0.02 %	2.69 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 492 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.92 % = -0.24 %	-2.02 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.16 % minus 0.18 % = -0.34 %	-17.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.14 % minus 0.09 % = -0.23 %	-29.73 %
Sell Signals - 493 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.36 % minus 0.92 % = 0.45 %	3.77 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.30 % minus 0.18 % = 0.11 %	5.83 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.22 % minus 0.09 % = 0.13 %	16.03 %
	.
Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 361 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.57 % minus 0.92 % = -0.34 %	-2.92 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.11 % minus 0.18 % = -0.30 %	-15.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.10 % minus 0.09 % = -0.20 %	-24.95 %
Sell Signals - 361 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.30 % minus 0.92 % = 0.39 %	3.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 0.18 % = 0.25 %	12.66 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.09 % = 0.24 %	30.02 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.47 % minus 0.92 % = 1.56 %	13.18 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.76 % minus 0.18 % = 0.58 %	29.45 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.32 % minus 0.09 % = 0.23 %	28.68 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.83 % minus 0.92 % = -0.08 %	-0.70 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.19 % minus 0.18 % = 0.00 %	0.17 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.14 %	18.08 %
	.
Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 314 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.94 % minus 0.92 % = 0.03 %	0.25 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.18 % = 0.14 %	7.29 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.24 % minus 0.09 % = 0.15 %	18.84 %
Sell Signals - 210 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.62 % minus 0.92 % = -0.30 %	-2.52 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.34 % minus 0.18 % = -0.52 %	-26.53 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.32 % minus 0.09 % = -0.41 %	-52.46 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.56 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -1.19 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.58 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal was -0.52 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.52 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.41 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..

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