Moving Average Analysis of XOM

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From the Weekend Report 2/5/2010: Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged.

XOM: Recent Averages with Candlestick Chart.
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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Exxon Mobil:

Different ways of averaging are tested on XOM stock prices for their ability to predict trend movements. Techniques available include moving weighted or exponential averages of various periods and the family of MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators.

Unfortunately, some of the most popular indicators of this type can prove to be the worst forcasting indicators. The next page tests the effectiveness of these methods as predictors of future prices for XOM.

Green is the 20 bar moving average, while the 200 session average is red. Often the simple unweighted moving averages seen in this plot will give a more accurate indicator, with fewer false signals than some of the supposedly more sophisticated techniques that we test below. Commonly, speculators will use exponential averages or weighting techniques to emphasize the most recent data. But past a certain point, such front weighting can dramatically increase false signals. Norman G. Fosback has noted that legitimate signals of this sort will normally be evident through a variety of averaging methods.




XOM: Moving Average Convergence
Companies In the News
Monday, February 08, 2010: We have news on American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Some signs of an over-sold condition have become evident. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. and MicroSoft.

From the News Archive: (2/4/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Illinois Tool Works Inc., Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation, and C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.. Meanwhile, bad news came from Eastman Kodak.




MACD analysis can use any of an infinite number of averaging methods and coefficients. Also, many analysts add a trigger line which is based on some average of the first two averages. Here we depict the results of 12 and 26 session Exponential Moving Averages. The exponential coefficient used here is .18. There is nothing magic about these parameters, but these are frequently seen.

Float the cursor for a longer term chart.

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Moving Avg. 20/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.80 % minus 0.94 % = 0.86 %7.29 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.54 % minus 0.19 % = 0.35 %17.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.44 % minus 0.10 % = 0.34 %43.11 %
Sell Signals - 27 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.94 % = -0.68 %-5.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.11 % minus 0.19 % = -0.30 %-15.18 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.03 %-4.44 %
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Moving Avg. 5/20 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 231 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.30 % minus 0.94 % = 0.36 %3.05 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.30 % minus 0.19 % = 0.11 %5.78 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.10 % = 0.15 %18.72 %
Sell Signals - 230 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.77 % minus 0.94 % = -0.18 %-1.48 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.02 % minus 0.19 % = -0.18 %-8.95 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.02 % minus 0.10 % = -0.12 %-15.23 %
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Moving Avg. 5/200 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 53 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.53 % minus 0.94 % = 0.58 %4.95 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.81 % minus 0.19 % = 0.62 %31.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.71 % minus 0.10 % = 0.61 %77.95 %
Sell Signals - 52 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.00 % minus 0.94 % = -0.95 %-8.01 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.19 % = -0.13 %-6.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.10 % = 0.15 %18.82 %
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MACD 12/26 DivergenceSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 823 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.98 % minus 0.94 % = 0.04 %0.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.17 % minus 0.19 % = -0.02 %-0.87 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.02 %-2.70 %
Sell Signals - 822 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.93 % minus 0.94 % = -0.02 %-0.16 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.20 % minus 0.19 % = 0.00 %0.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.04 %-4.51 %
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MACD 12/26 SignalSignaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 1117 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.05 % minus 0.94 % = 0.11 %0.90 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %4.00 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.16 % minus 0.10 % = 0.06 %7.82 %
Sell Signals - 1117 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.04 % minus 0.94 % = 0.09 %0.78 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.19 % = 0.06 %3.22 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.03 %4.00 %
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Calibrated M by Q Half Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 484 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.94 % = -0.30 %-2.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.35 %-17.99 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.14 % minus 0.10 % = -0.24 %-30.34 %
Sell Signals - 485 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.34 % minus 0.94 % = 0.40 %3.39 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.19 % = 0.14 %7.30 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.25 % minus 0.10 % = 0.15 %19.01 %
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Calibrated M by Q Full Cycle Moving Avg.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 354 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.63 % minus 0.94 % = -0.32 %-2.68 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.19 % = -0.27 %-13.79 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.08 % minus 0.10 % = -0.17 %-22.09 %
Sell Signals - 355 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 1.37 % minus 0.94 % = 0.42 %3.57 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.46 % minus 0.19 % = 0.26 %13.40 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.33 % minus 0.10 % = 0.23 %29.16 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 31 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 2.58 % minus 0.94 % = 1.64 %13.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.68 % minus 0.19 % = 0.49 %24.65 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.16 %20.03 %
Sell Signals - 34 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.72 % minus 0.94 % = -0.22 %-1.86 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.09 % minus 0.19 % = -0.10 %-5.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.13 % minus 0.10 % = 0.03 %3.45 %
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Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20.Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled AppreciationAnnualized %
Buy Signals - 305 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.96 % minus 0.94 % = 0.01 %0.13 %
Future5SesAvgClose 0.37 % minus 0.19 % = 0.18 %9.03 %
Future2SesAvgClose 0.26 % minus 0.10 % = 0.17 %21.07 %
Sell Signals - 205 instances
Future30SesAvgClose 0.64 % minus 0.94 % = -0.31 %-2.60 %
Future5SesAvgClose -0.36 % minus 0.19 % = -0.55 %-28.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose -0.35 % minus 0.10 % = -0.45 %-56.71 %
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The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.64 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 20/200.,and the best sell signal for was -0.95 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence.
For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.62 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.55 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..
The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.61 % from the Moving Avg. 5/200 Divergence,and the best sell signal was -0.45 % from the Projected Crossing of SMA 5/20..



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Exxon Mobil Moving Averages - XOM