Analytic Oscillators for Morgan Stanley Stock Prices - MS

From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: The Wilder RSI is moderately bearish, and going in the wrong direction. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side.

Wilder's RSI with Candlestick Chart. of Morgan Stanley

Wilder's RSI is depicted by the black line. The axis on the left marks it's values from 0 to 100. Ordinarily it will be in the range between 70 and 30. When it breaks out, say, below 20 or above about 80, the event is taken as a buy or sell signal.

Float the cursor over the graph for a longer view of this Indicator.

The traditional Wilder RSI uses a period of 14 trading sessions. The number 14 represents a half cycle of what he believed to be a 28 session wave. This estimate seems pretty accurate even in today's markets. However it is also possible to calibrate the period to the short term frequency of an individual stock issue, which is what is done in the following chapter.

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Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 46 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.43 % minus 1.08 % = -0.65 %	-5.47 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.29 % minus 0.25 % = 0.03 %	1.77 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.44 % minus 0.13 % = 0.31 %	39.58 %
Sell Signals - 49 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.38 % minus 1.08 % = 1.30 %	10.99 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.25 % = -0.16 %	-8.11 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.13 % = 0.21 %	26.34 %
	.
Wilder's RSI Signals at 80 and 20	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 0 instances
Sell Signals - 6 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.10 % minus 1.08 % = 2.02 %	17.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.25 % = 0.55 %	28.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.97 % minus 0.13 % = 0.84 %	106.86 %
	.
Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 9 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.80 % minus 1.08 % = -1.88 %	-15.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.58 % minus 0.25 % = 0.33 %	16.71 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.34 % minus 0.13 % = 1.21 %	153.21 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.83 % minus 1.08 % = 1.76 %	14.87 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.70 % minus 0.25 % = 0.45 %	22.68 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.13 % = 0.06 %	8.09 %
	.
Calibrated RSI Middle Crossing	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 305 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.38 % minus 1.08 % = 0.31 %	2.58 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.33 % minus 0.25 % = 0.08 %	4.12 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.05 % minus 0.13 % = -0.08 %	-10.64 %
Sell Signals - 302 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.14 % minus 1.08 % = 0.07 %	0.56 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.36 % minus 0.25 % = 0.11 %	5.72 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.26 % minus 0.13 % = 0.13 %	16.68 %
	.
Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Typical Monthly Cycle	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 0 instances
Sell Signals - 6 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	3.10 % minus 1.08 % = 2.02 %	17.11 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.25 % = 0.55 %	28.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.97 % minus 0.13 % = 0.84 %	106.86 %
	.
Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Modal BiWeekly Cycle	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 24 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-1.14 % minus 1.08 % = -2.21 %	-18.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.58 % minus 0.25 % = -0.83 %	-42.31 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.63 % minus 0.13 % = -0.76 %	-96.23 %
Sell Signals - 40 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.50 % minus 1.08 % = 0.42 %	3.55 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.22 % minus 0.25 % = -0.47 %	-23.69 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.70 % minus 0.13 % = -0.84 %	-106.23 %
	.
Wilder's 30 Day RSI Signals at 70 and 30	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 0 instances
Sell Signals - 7 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.44 % minus 1.08 % = 0.36 %	3.04 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.37 % minus 0.25 % = 1.12 %	56.73 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.81 % minus 0.13 % = 0.68 %	86.19 %
	.
Wilder's 90 Day RSI Signals at 60 and 40	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 3 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	11.99 % minus 1.08 % = 10.91 %	92.37 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.20 % minus 0.25 % = -0.05 %	-2.41 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.49 % minus 0.13 % = 1.36 %	172.69 %
Sell Signals - 13 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.78 % minus 1.08 % = 0.70 %	5.91 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.71 % minus 0.25 % = 0.46 %	23.14 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.80 % minus 0.13 % = 0.67 %	84.81 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 10.91 % from the Wilder's 90 Day RSI Signals at 60 and 40,and the best sell signal for was 0.07 % from the Calibrated RSI Middle Crossing.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.33 % from the Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20,and the best sell signal was -0.47 % from the Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Modal BiWeekly Cycle.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 1.36 % from the Wilder's 90 Day RSI Signals at 60 and 40,and the best sell signal was -0.84 % from the Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Modal BiWeekly Cycle.

In The News:

Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories.

From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.

	Other Companies
	Regions Financial Corporation
	Dean Foods Company
	Fortune Brands, Inc.
	Parker-Hannifin Corporation
	The Estee Lauder Companies Inc.
	IMS Health, Inc.
	The Kroger Co.
	Deere & Company
	Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
	International Paper
	XL Capital Ltd.

This looks back at signals given by Wilder's RSI for the past year.

A whole family of RSI indicators exist, which are calculated in periods other than 14 trading sessions. One of the most consistently powerful indicators is the 30 bar version seen here.

Float the cursor for an even longer term version.

These slower versions of the RSI have less swing since they are averaged out over a longer time. They provide fewer signals per year, but the signals provided are more significant.

Stochastics .

This looks back at signals given by Stochastics during the last year.

Detailed Oscillator Indicator Analysis for MS :

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