Oscillator Indicator Analysis of - USB

From the Weekend Report 11/5/2010: In spite of some improvement in the last week, the Wilder RSI is calling for caution. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift.

Wilder's RSI with Candlestick Chart. of U.S. Bancorp

Wilder's RSI is depicted by the black line. The axis on the left marks it's values from 0 to 100. Ordinarily it will be in the range between 70 and 30. When it breaks out, say, below 20 or above about 80, the event is taken as a buy or sell signal.

Float the cursor over the graph for a longer view of this Indicator.

The traditional Wilder RSI uses a period of 14 trading sessions. The number 14 represents a half cycle of what he believed to be a 28 session wave. This estimate seems pretty accurate even in today's markets. However it is also possible to calibrate the period to the short term frequency of an individual stock issue, which is what is done in the following chapter.

More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for U.S. Bancorp:

Predictions

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Classical Time Series

Bernoulli Analysis

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Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 57 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.01 % minus 0.93 % = 1.08 %	9.15 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %	4.09 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.06 % minus 0.10 % = -0.15 %	-19.66 %
Sell Signals - 41 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.15 % minus 0.93 % = 0.23 %	1.93 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.47 % minus 0.19 % = 0.28 %	14.24 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.34 % minus 0.10 % = 0.24 %	30.83 %
	.
Wilder's RSI Signals at 80 and 20	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 3 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-5.27 % minus 0.93 % = -6.20 %	-52.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-3.39 % minus 0.19 % = -3.58 %	-182.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-3.38 % minus 0.10 % = -3.48 %	-441.62 %
Sell Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.34 % minus 0.93 % = 0.42 %	3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.93 % minus 0.19 % = 1.74 %	88.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.05 % minus 0.10 % = 0.95 %	121.20 %
	.
Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 3 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-5.27 % minus 0.93 % = -6.20 %	-52.50 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-3.39 % minus 0.19 % = -3.58 %	-182.01 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-3.38 % minus 0.10 % = -3.48 %	-441.62 %
Sell Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.34 % minus 0.93 % = 0.42 %	3.53 %
Future5SesAvgClose	1.93 % minus 0.19 % = 1.74 %	88.49 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.05 % minus 0.10 % = 0.95 %	121.20 %
	.
Calibrated RSI Middle Crossing	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 345 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.93 % = -0.43 %	-3.66 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.16 % minus 0.19 % = -0.03 %	-1.67 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.14 % minus 0.10 % = 0.04 %	5.52 %
Sell Signals - 344 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.68 % minus 0.93 % = -0.25 %	-2.08 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.12 % minus 0.19 % = -0.07 %	-3.54 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.09 % minus 0.10 % = -0.01 %	-0.66 %
	.
Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Typical Monthly Cycle	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 2 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-7.21 % minus 0.93 % = -8.14 %	-68.88 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-5.18 % minus 0.19 % = -5.37 %	-272.74 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-3.52 % minus 0.10 % = -3.62 %	-459.71 %
Sell Signals - 3 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.90 % minus 0.93 % = -0.03 %	-0.26 %
Future5SesAvgClose	2.23 % minus 0.19 % = 2.04 %	103.44 %
Future2SesAvgClose	1.32 % minus 0.10 % = 1.22 %	155.32 %
	.
Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Modal BiWeekly Cycle	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 15 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	2.28 % minus 0.93 % = 1.35 %	11.43 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.60 % minus 0.19 % = -0.79 %	-40.23 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.41 % minus 0.10 % = -0.51 %	-64.92 %
Sell Signals - 19 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	0.42 % minus 0.93 % = -0.51 %	-4.31 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.79 % minus 0.19 % = 0.60 %	30.59 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.49 % minus 0.10 % = 0.39 %	49.91 %
	.
Wilder's 30 Day RSI Signals at 70 and 30	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 0 instances
Sell Signals - 8 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-2.73 % minus 0.93 % = -3.65 %	-30.94 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-0.57 % minus 0.19 % = -0.76 %	-38.84 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-0.52 % minus 0.10 % = -0.62 %	-78.25 %
	.
Wilder's 90 Day RSI Signals at 60 and 40	Signaled Appreciation minus non-signaled Appreciation	Annualized %
Buy Signals - 5 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	1.25 % minus 0.93 % = 0.32 %	2.74 %
Future5SesAvgClose	-1.78 % minus 0.19 % = -1.98 %	-100.36 %
Future2SesAvgClose	-1.55 % minus 0.10 % = -1.64 %	-208.79 %
Sell Signals - 14 instances
Future30SesAvgClose	-0.59 % minus 0.93 % = -1.51 %	-12.80 %
Future5SesAvgClose	0.27 % minus 0.19 % = 0.08 %	4.02 %
Future2SesAvgClose	0.37 % minus 0.10 % = 0.28 %	34.99 %
	.

The best buy signal for 30 future sessions was 1.35 % from the Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Modal BiWeekly Cycle,and the best sell signal for was -3.65 % from the Wilder's 30 Day RSI Signals at 70 and 30.

For 5 future sessions the best buy signal was 0.08 % from the Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20,and the best sell signal was -0.76 % from the Wilder's 30 Day RSI Signals at 70 and 30.

The best buy signal for 2 future sessions was 0.04 % from the Calibrated RSI Middle Crossing,and the best sell signal was -0.62 % from the Wilder's 30 Day RSI Signals at 70 and 30.

In The News:

Monday, November 15, 2010: We have news on PG&E Corporation, ticker symbol PCG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Cree, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories.

From the News Archive: (11/12/2010 ) A favorable event happened at PetSmart, Inc. Meanwhile, bad news came from Intel, Chesapeake Energy Corporation, and JP Morgan Chase.

	Other Companies
	Anheuser-Busch
	Micron Technology, Inc.
	Newmont Mining Corporation
	Waste Management, Inc.
	American Express
	Ecolab Inc.
	BB&T Corporation
	Analog Devices, Inc.
	Windstream Corporation
	NiSource Inc.
	Southwestern Energy Company

This looks back at signals given by Wilder's RSI for the past year.

A whole family of RSI indicators exist, which are calculated in periods other than 14 trading sessions. One of the most consistently powerful indicators is the 30 bar version seen here.

Float the cursor for an even longer term version.

These slower versions of the RSI have less swing since they are averaged out over a longer time. They provide fewer signals per year, but the signals provided are more significant.

Stochastics .

This looks back at signals given by Stochastics during the last year.

Detailed Oscillator Indicator Analysis for USB :

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