Predictions for AMR

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Predictions for AMR Stock Prices

Chapter XVI: Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to AMR over the next few months?

Profitability during each Month of American Airlines

This plot shows recent signals and predictions from several XML sources in relation to recent prices.

On the left, the vertical red and green bars show technical signals. The impact of these signals is typically short-term. Conventional target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The green shaded ovals depict probability densities of response surface projections. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached.


General Market Conditions

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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for American Airlines:


Target Scoring AMR

Pct. Targets Above Base:Avg. Target PriceAvg. Appreciation
Simple Forecasts77.78 %10.414.61 %
Response Predictions100.00 %10.586.33 %



Table of Predictions for AMR

Analyst:Prediction TypeBase DateDescriptionTarget DateBase PriceTarget PricePct. Change
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price3/12/2010Nearest Volumetric Price Ceiling 6/12/2010$9.95$20.5
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price3/12/2010Volumetric Mean As Ceiling 6/12/2010$9.95$13.28
E.S. ChaseTarget Price3/12/2010Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 6/12/2010$9.95$12.7928.54 %
S.A. ChiCeiling Price3/12/2010Upper limit of typical Volatility 6/12/2010$9.95$12.32
R.S. AdamsTarget Price3/12/2010Phase200 Response90 6/12/2010$9.95$10.586.33 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/12/2010Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend 6/12/2010$9.95$10.283.32 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/12/2010Raw Least Squares Trend 6/12/2010$9.95$10.283.32 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/12/20105 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 6/12/2010$9.95$9.51-4.42 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/12/2010Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 6/12/2010$9.95$10.354.02 %
R.S.A. SmithTarget Price3/12/2010NVI Response90 6/12/2010$9.95$10.263.12 %
T. PearsonTarget Price3/12/2010Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 6/12/2010$9.95$10.192.41 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/12/2010Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend 6/12/2010$9.95$9.44-5.13 %
S.A. ChiSupport Price3/12/2010Lower limit of typical Volatility 6/12/2010$9.95$8.08


Recent Technical Indicators for American Airlines

A recent interesting signal was the Wilder90RSI60or40 seen on Thursday, March 11, 2010.
DateIndicatorBuy or SellWeeklyMonthly
3/11/2010Wilder90RSI60or40S-21.00 %-11.00 %
2/17/2010Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
2/12/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
1/27/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
1/20/2010Wilder30RSI70or30S-55.00 %-21.00 %
12/28/2009VPI80by20B6.00 %6.00 %
12/23/2009CalibratedWilderRSIBiWeeklyModalS-39.00 %-15.00 %
12/23/2009CalibratedWilderRSIS-23.00 %-11.00 %
12/18/2009Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
12/15/2009Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
12/3/2009Wilder7RSI80or20B6.00 %1.00 %
11/30/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
11/27/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %



AMR:  Last Quarter Forecast Accuracy

Past predictions are combined on this illustration to show how they relate to the actual prices that occurred.

The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.)




Week-end Altitude
Above: This chart from Chapter 6 reveals a strong signal: A strong sell signal from the 90 session RSI (Wilder) occurred on Thursday, March 11, 2010.



In The News:

Friday, March 12, 2010: We have news on ConAgra Foods, Inc., ticker symbol CAG. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning Fluor Corporation (NEW) and Automatic Data Processing.

From the News Archive: (3/11/2010 ) Favorable events happened at Zimmer Holdings, Inc., Zimmer Holdings, Inc., and GameStop Corp.. Meanwhile, bad news came from The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company.


Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface

AMR:   Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface


Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for American Airlines from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line.

For more about these surfaces, click here.


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For Subscribers: Refined Predictions for American Airlines

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