Predictions American Airlines

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American Airlines Stock Predictions - AMR

Chapter XVI: Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements.

AMR:  Profitability during each Month

This plot shows recent signals and predictions from several XML sources in relation to recent prices.

On the left, the vertical red and green bars mark conventional technical signals. The impact of these signals is short-term, so they may only effect prices for a day or two. The longer-term target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The shaded green circles depict the probability densities of response surface forecasts. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached.


General Market Conditions

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Target Scoring AMR

Pct. Targets Above Base:Avg. Target PriceAvg. Appreciation
Simple Forecasts77.78 %8.732.52 %
Response Predictions100.00 %8.803.29 %



Table of Predictions for AMR

Analyst:Prediction TypeBase DateDescriptionTarget DateBase PriceTarget PricePct. Change
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price11/12/2010Nearest Volumetric Price Ceiling 2/12/2011$8.52$20.5
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price11/12/2010Volumetric Mean As Ceiling 2/12/2011$8.52$12.76
S.A. ChiCeiling Price11/12/2010Upper limit of typical Volatility 2/12/2011$8.52$10.62
E.S. ChaseTarget Price11/12/2010Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 2/12/2011$8.52$10.320.89 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price11/12/2010Raw Least Squares Trend 2/12/2011$8.52$8.742.58 %
T. PearsonTarget Price11/12/2010Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 2/12/2011$8.52$8.884.23 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price11/12/2010Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend 2/12/2011$8.52$8.742.58 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price11/12/2010Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 2/12/2011$8.52$8.641.41 %
R.S.A. SmithTarget Price11/12/2010NVI Response90 2/12/2011$8.52$8.752.70 %
R.S. AdamsTarget Price11/12/2010Phase200 Response90 2/12/2011$8.52$8.83.29 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price11/12/2010Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend 2/12/2011$8.52$7.93-6.92 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price11/12/20105 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 2/12/2011$8.52$7.83-8.10 %
S.A. ChiSupport Price11/12/2010Lower limit of typical Volatility 2/12/2011$8.52$6.92
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Some Recent Technical Signals from AMR

A recent interesting signal was the Wilder30RSI70or30 seen on Friday, November 05, 2010.
DateIndicatorBuy or SellWeeklyMonthly
11/10/2010SMA20Over200DivergenceS-29.00 %-12.00 %
11/5/2010Wilder30RSI70or30S-55.00 %-21.00 %
11/4/2010Trigger5ProjectedCrossSMA20Over200S-18.00 %-10.00 %
10/28/2010SMA5Over200DivergenceS-25.00 %-12.00 %
10/26/2010CalibratedWilderRSIS-23.00 %-11.00 %
10/26/2010CalibratedWilderRSIBiWeeklyModalS-39.00 %-15.00 %
10/25/2010BiWeeklySawTooth50xingS-34.00 %-15.00 %
10/20/2010Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
10/19/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
9/29/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
9/20/2010Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
9/16/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
8/16/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
8/2/2010BiWeeklySawTooth70or30B36.00 %22.00 %



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AMR:  Last Quarter Forecast Accuracy

Previous forecasts from several of the XML Price Prediction services are shown compared to actual performance.

The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.)




Week-end Altitude
Above: This chart from Chapter 6 reveals a strong signal: On Friday, November 05, 2010 the 30 bar RSI emitted a strong sell signal.



In The News:

In the news, Monday, November 15, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with Sprint Nextel Corporation, ticker symbol S. Also, there are breaking events concerning Abbott Laboratories (ABT) and Cree, Inc. (CREE)


Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for American Airlines from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line.

For more about these surfaces, click here.


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