Predictions Ciena Corporation

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Predictions for CIEN Stock Prices

Chapter XVI: Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements.

CIEN:  Profitability during each Month

This plot shows recent signals and predictions from several XML sources in relation to recent prices.

On the left, the vertical red and green bars mark conventional technical signals. The impact of these signals is short-term, so they may only effect prices for a day or two. The longer-term target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The shaded green circles depict the probability densities of response surface forecasts. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached.


General Market Conditions

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Target Scoring CIEN

Pct. Targets Above Base:Avg. Target PriceAvg. Appreciation
Simple Forecasts33.33 %11.32-13.12 %
Response Predictions100.00 %13.342.38 %



Table of Predictions for CIEN

Analyst:Prediction TypeBase DateDescriptionTarget DateBase PriceTarget PricePct. Change
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price8/27/2010Volumetric Mean As Ceiling 11/27/2010$13.03$250.68
S.A. ChiCeiling Price8/27/2010Upper limit of typical Volatility 11/27/2010$13.03$17.44
E.S. ChaseTarget Price8/27/2010Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 11/27/2010$13.03$15.8321.49 %
T. PearsonTarget Price8/27/2010Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 11/27/2010$13.03$12.71-2.46 %
R.S.A. SmithTarget Price8/27/2010NVI Response90 11/27/2010$13.03$13.412.92 %
R.S. AdamsTarget Price8/27/2010Phase200 Response90 11/27/2010$13.03$13.342.38 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price8/27/2010Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend 11/27/2010$13.03$12.2-6.37 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price8/27/20105 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 11/27/2010$13.03$12.08-7.29 %
S.A. ChiSupport Price8/27/2010Lower limit of typical Volatility 11/27/2010$13.03$9.12
C.D. TuringTarget Price8/27/2010Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 11/27/2010$13.03$7.39-43.28 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price8/27/2010Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend 11/27/2010$13.03$7.46-42.75 %
CIEN




Ciena Corporation











Ciena Corporation - Recent Technical Signals

A recent interesting signal was the SMA5Over20Divergence seen on Friday, August 13, 2010.
DateIndicatorBuy or SellWeeklyMonthly
8/13/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
7/27/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
7/6/2010CalibratedWilderRSIB9.00 %5.00 %
6/30/2010SMA20Over200DivergenceB7.00 %1.00 %
6/30/2010CalibratedWilderRSIBiWeeklyModalB12.00 %4.00 %
6/28/2010Wilder7RSI80or20B6.00 %1.00 %
6/25/2010SMA5Over200DivergenceB12.00 %3.00 %
6/24/2010Trigger5ProjectedCrossSMA20Over200B9.00 %3.00 %
6/16/2010SMA5Over200DivergenceS-25.00 %-12.00 %
6/11/2010SMA5Over200DivergenceB12.00 %3.00 %
5/10/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %



CIEN




Ciena Corporation









CIEN:  Last Quarter Forecast Accuracy

This plot shows the actual results of last quarter's XML source forecasts.

The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.)




Week-end Altitude
Above: Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Friday, August 13, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal.



In The News:

Friday, September 03, 2010: We have news on King Pharmaceuticals, Inc., ticker symbol KG. A significant moving average event has happened. Also, there are breaking events concerning Marshall & Ilsley Corporation and Electronic Data Systems.

From the News Archive: (9/3/2010 ) Bad news came from Mitsui & Company, Ltd., Panera Bread Company, Discovery Communications, Inc, and Newell Rubbermaid Inc..



Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for Ciena Corporation from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line.

For more about these surfaces, click here.


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