Predictions for DJIA

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Predictions for DJIA Stock Prices

Chapter XVI: Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements.

Profitability during each Month of Dow Industrials

This plot shows recent signals and predictions from several XML sources in relation to recent prices.

On the left, the vertical red and green bars mark conventional technical signals. The impact of these signals is short-term, so they may only effect prices for a day or two. The longer-term target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The shaded green circles depict the probability densities of response surface forecasts. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached.


General Market Conditions

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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Dow Industrials:


Target Scoring DJIA

Pct. Targets Above Base:Avg. Target PriceAvg. Appreciation
Simple Forecasts88.89 %10110.852.04 %
Response Predictions100.00 %10244.203.39 %



Table of Predictions for DJIA

Analyst:Prediction TypeBase DateDescriptionTarget DateBase PriceTarget PricePct. Change
E.S. ChaseTarget Price2/8/2010Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 5/8/2010$9908.39$10604.147.02 %
S.A. ChiCeiling Price2/8/2010Upper limit of typical Volatility 5/8/2010$9908.39$10547.27
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price2/8/2010Nearest Volumetric Price Ceiling 5/8/2010$9908.39$10350.5
R.S. AdamsTarget Price2/8/2010Phase200 Response90 5/8/2010$9908.39$10244.23.39 %
R.S.A. SmithTarget Price2/8/2010NVI Response90 5/8/2010$9908.39$10202.342.97 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price2/8/2010Raw Least Squares Trend 5/8/2010$9908.39$10123.452.17 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price2/8/2010Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend 5/8/2010$9908.39$10123.492.17 %
T. PearsonTarget Price2/8/2010Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 5/8/2010$9908.39$10055.541.49 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price2/8/2010Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 5/8/2010$9908.39$9951.360.43 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price2/8/2010Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend 5/8/2010$9908.39$9931.010.23 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price2/8/20105 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 5/8/2010$9908.39$9762.15-1.48 %
D.B. VeblenSupport Price2/8/2010Volumetric Mean As Floor 5/8/2010$9908.39$9586.09
S.A. ChiSupport Price2/8/2010Lower limit of typical Volatility 5/8/2010$9908.39$9270.01


Some Recent Technical Signals from DJIA

A recent interesting signal was the SMA5Over20Divergence seen on Friday, January 22, 2010.
DateIndicatorBuy or SellWeeklyMonthly
1/22/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
1/19/2010BiWeeklySawTooth70or30S-26.00 %-9.00 %
12/30/2009Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
12/24/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
12/22/2009BiWeeklySawTooth70or30S-26.00 %-9.00 %
12/22/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
12/11/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
12/10/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
11/11/2009Wilder7RSI80or20S-12.00 %-7.00 %
10/15/2009CalibratedWilderRSIS-23.00 %-11.00 %



DJIA:  Last Quarter Forecast Accuracy

Past predictions are combined on this illustration to show how they relate to the actual prices that occurred.

The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.)




Week-end Altitude
Above: Illustration from Chapter 5: No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Friday, January 22, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal.



In The News:

In the news, Monday, February 08, 2010: A favorable condition has developed with American International Group, Inc., ticker symbol AIG. Also, there are breaking events concerning Nicor Inc. (GAS) and ACM Income Fund (ACG)

Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface

DJIA:   Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface


Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for Dow Industrials from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line.

For more about these surfaces, click here.


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