Predictions for HOG

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Stock Price Predictions for Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Chapter XVI: Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to HOG over the next few months?

Profitability during each Month of Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Some recent Technical Signals and Predictions from several entities are combined on this illustration to show how they relate to each other on a scale with recent prices.

On the left, the vertical red and green bars show technical signals. The impact of these signals is typically short-term. Conventional target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The green shaded ovals depict probability densities of response surface projections. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached.


General Market Conditions

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More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Harley-Davidson, Inc.:


Target Scoring HOG

Pct. Targets Above Base:Avg. Target PriceAvg. Appreciation
Simple Forecasts77.78 %29.022.97 %
Response Predictions100.00 %29.374.22 %



Table of Predictions for HOG

Analyst:Prediction TypeBase DateDescriptionTarget DateBase PriceTarget PricePct. Change
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price3/17/2010Nearest Volumetric Price Ceiling 6/17/2010$28.18$42.5
E.S. ChaseTarget Price3/17/2010Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 6/17/2010$28.18$33.7819.87 %
S.A. ChiCeiling Price3/17/2010Upper limit of typical Volatility 6/17/2010$28.18$32.7
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price3/17/2010Volumetric Mean As Ceiling 6/17/2010$28.18$29.94
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/17/2010Raw Least Squares Trend 6/17/2010$28.18$28.972.80 %
T. PearsonTarget Price3/17/2010Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 6/17/2010$28.18$28.822.27 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/17/2010Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend 6/17/2010$28.18$28.972.80 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/17/2010Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 6/17/2010$28.18$29.022.98 %
R.S. AdamsTarget Price3/17/2010Phase200 Response90 6/17/2010$28.18$29.374.22 %
R.S.A. SmithTarget Price3/17/2010NVI Response90 6/17/2010$28.18$29.153.44 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/17/20105 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 6/17/2010$28.18$26.55-5.78 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price3/17/2010Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend 6/17/2010$28.18$26.51-5.93 %
D.B. VeblenSupport Price3/17/2010Nearest Volumetric Price Floor 6/17/2010$28.18$24


Harley-Davidson, Inc. - Recent Technical Signals

A recent interesting signal was the VPI80by20 seen on Tuesday, March 16, 2010.
DateIndicatorBuy or SellWeeklyMonthly
3/16/2010VPI80by20B6.00 %6.00 %
3/5/2010Wilder7RSI80or20B6.00 %1.00 %
2/18/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
1/22/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
1/21/2010SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
12/10/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %



HOG:  Last Quarter Forecast Accuracy

This plot shows the actual results of last quarter's XML source forecasts.

The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.)




Week-end Altitude
Above: Illustration from Chapter 9: VPI or Volume Portion Index, is a momentum investing indicator that reached a peak on Tuesday, March 16, 2010.



In The News:

Friday, March 19, 2010: We have news on L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc., ticker symbol LLL. Signs of an over-bought condition have become noticable. Also, there are breaking events concerning American Tower Corporation and TECO Energy, Inc..

From the News Archive: (3/18/2010 ) Bad news came from MicroSoft, Mylan Inc., Sempra Energy, and Walmart.


Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface

HOG:   Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface


Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for Harley-Davidson, Inc. from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line.

For more about these surfaces, click here.


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