Predictions for MSFT

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Predictions for MSFT Stock Prices

Chapter XVI: Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to MSFT over the next few months?

Profitability during each Month of MicroSoft

Some recent Technical Signals and Predictions from several entities are combined on this illustration to show how they relate to each other on a scale with recent prices.

On the left, the vertical red and green bars show technical signals. The impact of these signals is typically short-term. Conventional target prices are the short red horizontal bars on the extreme right. The green shaded ovals depict probability densities of response surface projections. These are designed so that there is a 95 percent confidence that the price will touch the light green area and a 67 percent confidence that the priceline will touch the inner dark green region. Horizontal lower boundaries of conventional forecasts (floor prices) are green, and orange horizontal bars show ceiling prices. If the path to a target price crosses against a floor or ceiling, the resistance may prevent the target from being reached.


General Market Conditions

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Target Scoring MSFT

Pct. Targets Above Base:Avg. Target PriceAvg. Appreciation
Simple Forecasts55.56 %24.401.51 %
Response Predictions100.00 %24.712.79 %



Table of Predictions for MSFT

Analyst:Prediction TypeBase DateDescriptionTarget DateBase PriceTarget PricePct. Change
D.B. VeblenCeiling Price7/1/2009Nearest Volumetric Price Ceiling 10/1/2009$24.04$32.5
S.A. ChiCeiling Price7/1/2009Upper limit of typical Volatility 10/1/2009$24.04$27.75
E.S. ChaseTarget Price7/1/2009Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 10/1/2009$24.04$26.8611.73 %
R.S. AdamsTarget Price7/1/2009Phase200 Response90 10/1/2009$24.04$24.712.79 %
R.S.A. SmithTarget Price7/1/2009NVI Response90 10/1/2009$24.04$24.722.83 %
T. PearsonTarget Price7/1/2009Political Calendar Monthly QuarterTerm Potential Appreciation 10/1/2009$24.04$23.71-1.37 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price7/1/2009Raw Least Squares Trend 10/1/2009$24.04$24.160.50 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price7/1/2009Deseasonalized Least Squares Trend 10/1/2009$24.04$24.160.50 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price7/1/20095 Year Linear Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 10/1/2009$24.04$23.57-1.96 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price7/1/2009Deseasonalized 5 Year Linear Trend 10/1/2009$24.04$23.84-0.83 %
C.D. TuringTarget Price7/1/2009Full History Least Squares Trend with Seasonal Adjustment 10/1/2009$24.04$23.89-0.62 %
D.B. VeblenSupport Price7/1/2009Nearest Volumetric Price Floor 10/1/2009$24.04$23
S.A. ChiSupport Price7/1/2009Lower limit of typical Volatility 10/1/2009$24.04$20.83


Some Recent Technical Signals from MSFT

A recent interesting signal was the SMA20Over200Divergence seen on Monday, June 08, 2009.
DateIndicatorBuy or SellWeeklyMonthly
6/8/2009SMA20Over200DivergenceS-29.00 %-12.00 %
6/3/2009Trigger5ProjectedCrossSMA20Over200S-18.00 %-10.00 %
6/2/2009SMA5Over200DivergenceS-25.00 %-12.00 %
5/15/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
5/12/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceB15.00 %6.00 %
3/17/2009SMA5Over20DivergenceS-8.00 %-5.00 %
3/6/2009CalibratedWilderRSIB9.00 %5.00 %
3/5/2009CalibratedWilderRSIBiWeeklyModalB12.00 %4.00 %
3/5/2009WilderRSI80or20B15.00 %9.00 %



Last Quarter Forecast Accuracy of MicroSoft

The last quarter's forecasts from XML prediction sources are shown in relation to the prices that actually occurred.

The green oval shapes represent the proprietary Indicator Response Surface projections from Hybrid Technical. Any report that is not accurate within the 95 percent confidence limit (outer light green shading) will be refunded in full. Full Access Subscribers receive double their money back. (* This offer is subject to restrictions outlined in the member agreement.)




Week-end Altitude
Above: Illustration from Chapter 5: No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 20/200 Divergence", was produced on Monday, June 08, 2009. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal.



In The News:

In the news, Wednesday, July 01, 2009: An unfavorable condition has developed with Lexmark International, Inc., ticker symbol LXK. Also, there are breaking events concerning Lennar Corporation (LEN) and The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV)

Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface

 Volumetric Price Behaviour Surface of MicroSoft


Price Behavior Surfaces are a way to visualize the forces that act upon the price through time. The illustration above shows the surface for MicroSoft from two different angles.These surfaces illustrate the imbalance between competing forces of fear and greed and the effect that they exert on the direction of the price line.

For more about these surfaces, click here.


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