| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Friday, March 05, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
Looking back from Friday, March 12, 2010, the past 8 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. This week's transaction volume increased as well as the price for AAPL. In spite of some improvement in the last week, the Wilder RSI is calling for caution. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 97.17% to 97.21% in the past month. The MACD Cycle is in phase one here, with AAPL 25.00 % above the 200 bar SMA, increasing the distance over the week. From the Update 3/18/2010 : The most recent candle is a stepped down short body Hangman, following the Engulfing short body on the previous session. While not a particularly powerful sign, the stepped down candle shows an orderly market, with some selling pressure. No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Friday, March 05, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: AAPL Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
The Classical Analysis of Time Series establishes a good starting point in the analysis, and provides a high vantage point for viewing patterns of behaviour in the prices over the entire history of Apple Computer. See AAPL Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Apple Computer prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See AAPL Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See AAPL Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Apple Computer Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See AAPL Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Apple Computer prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in AAPL stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of AAPL.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward AAPL. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Apple Computer in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See AAPL Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Apple Computer speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See AAPL Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Apple Computer gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See AAPL Final Results . |
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