| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20", was flagged on Friday, October 29, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:No commentary available from weekend report. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: ACAS Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for American Capital Ltd., and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See ACAS Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See ACAS Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See ACAS Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of American Capital Ltd. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See ACAS Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of American Capital Ltd. prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of ACAS.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of ACAS stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward ACAS. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of ACAS prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of American Capital Ltd. in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to ACAS over the next few months? See ACAS Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for ACAS. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See ACAS Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for American Capital Ltd. gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See ACAS Final Results . |
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