| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Friday, March 05, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
As of closing time on the NYSE Friday, March 12, 2010, the price has been down for 6 days in a row. Last week the price of ADM went down and the volume grew. Losses were limited to -6.40 % for the week. ADM does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. There is a favorable category change from last week's close. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: This indicator is down over the last month. Phase three, the next to the last of the 200 session moving average phases, is now in effect as the price is diverging in a downward direction from the average line. From the Update 3/12/2010 : The candle on 3/12/2010 is a stepped down long day. This is after a Star long dayon the preceeding session. While not a particularly powerful sign, the stepped down candle shows an orderly market, with some selling pressure. The most recent signal, "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was produced on Friday, March 05, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: ADM Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of ADM by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See ADM Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See ADM Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of ADM stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See ADM Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See ADM Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Archer-Daniels-Midland prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in ADM stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to ADM historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of ADM.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Archer-Daniels-Midland show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Archer-Daniels-Midland historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the ADM historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See ADM Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for ADM. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See ADM Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Archer-Daniels-Midland gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See ADM Final Results . |
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