| Below - This chart from Chapter 6 reveals a strong signal: A strong sell signal from the 90 session RSI (Wilder) occurred on Thursday, March 11, 2010. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:From the Update 3/12/2010 : A signal that may be significant has occurred. A strong sell signal from the 90 session RSI (Wilder) occurred on Thursday, March 11, 2010. The recent session is represented as a long day, following the medium body on Thursday. Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
Volume and Price increased together for AMR this week. AMR does not seem to be over-bought or under-bought at the moment. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The NVI shows a normal pattern. Not much buying is going on on down days. It seems to be rising, coming from 92.13% to 92.14% in the past month. After increasing the spread over the week, AMR is now 52.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of AMR by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See AMR Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See AMR Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See AMR Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See AMR Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of American Airlines prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in AMR stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of AMR.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward American Airlines show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of AMR prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the AMR historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to AMR over the next few months? See AMR Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for American Airlines speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See AMR Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for American Airlines gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See AMR Final Results . |
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