| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A strong sell signal from the 90 session RSI (Wilder) occurred on Thursday, February 11, 2010. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 06, 2010:
As of Friday, March 05, 2010, the closing price has been up for 7 days in a row. This week's transaction volume increased as well as the price for AMZN. The Wilder RSI is moderately bearish, and going in the wrong direction. The conventional RSI is almost unchanged from the previous week. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: It seems to be rising, coming from 97.35% to 97.37% in the past month. After increasing the spread over the week, AMZN is now 24.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average. From the Update 3/10/2010 : The candle representing 3/10/2010 was a stepped up medium body after a Shadowed short body previously. The stepped candle has a body that is shadowed at one end only. It can indicate an orderly progression of the market. A strong sell signal from the 90 session RSI (Wilder) occurred on Thursday, February 11, 2010. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: AMZN Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Amazon historical prices are subjected to old fashioned Classical Time Series Analysis in this section. Patterns that emerge here will be a starting point for more detailed analysis. See AMZN Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See AMZN Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See AMZN Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See AMZN Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Amazon prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in AMZN stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of AMZN.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of AMZN stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Amazon show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Amazon historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Amazon in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See AMZN Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for AMZN. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See AMZN Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Amazon gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See AMZN Final Results . |
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