|Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: No really strong signals during the past week. The most recent signal, "Calibrated RSI at 80 and 20 for Modal BiWeekly Cycle", was produced on Monday, October 04, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a buy signal. |
Summary of Recent Reports:No commentary available from weekend report.
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Ares Capital Corporation, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See ARCC Classical Analysis.
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See ARCC Volatility Risk.
This section shows historical volumes for sales of ARCC stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See ARCC Historical Volume.
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Ares Capital Corporation Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See ARCC Calendar Year Trends.
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Ares Capital Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in ARCC stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of ARCC.
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of ARCC stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
The mood of the market toward Ares Capital Corporation show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of ARCC prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Ares Capital Corporation historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Ares Capital Corporation in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to ARCC over the next few months? See ARCC Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Ares Capital Corporation speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See ARCC Multi-Company Strategies .
The statistical abstract for Ares Capital Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See ARCC Final Results .
More than 70 Hi-Rez charts daily for Ares Capital Corporation: