| Below - Illustration from Chapter 15: The most recent signal, "Semi-Annual Avg. of Bi-weekly Sawtooth Signals middle Crossing", was produced on Tuesday, November 02, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:No commentary available from weekend report. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Ashland Inc. historical prices are subjected to old fashioned Classical Time Series Analysis in this section. Patterns that emerge here will be a starting point for more detailed analysis. See ASH Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See ASH Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See ASH Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See ASH Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Ashland Inc. prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of ASH.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis tracks the volumes associated with price levels over the entire history of a stock. The resulting analysis yields a framework for understanding the mechanism behind support and resistance levels, and a scientific basis for predicting price behaviors due to those levels. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Ashland Inc. show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Ashland Inc. in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to ASH over the next few months? See ASH Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Ashland Inc. speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See ASH Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Ashland Inc. gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See ASH Final Results . |
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