| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Friday, February 12, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
Although the price increased by 0.22 % for AYE this week, the volume actually fell, sending cautionary note for the future. According to the Wilder RSI, AYE is in the middle, but it is moving in a bearish direction. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. No signal from the Negative Volume Index: It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week. From the Update 3/18/2010 : The candle on 3/18/2010 is a stepped down medium body. This is after a Star short bodyon the preceeding session. While not a particularly powerful sign, the stepped down candle shows an orderly market, with some selling pressure. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Friday, February 12, 2010. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of AYE by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See AYE Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Allegheny Energy, Inc. prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See AYE Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See AYE Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Allegheny Energy, Inc. Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See AYE Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Allegheny Energy, Inc. prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in AYE stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to AYE historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of AYE.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Allegheny Energy, Inc. show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of AYE prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Allegheny Energy, Inc. historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the AYE historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See AYE Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for AYE. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See AYE Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Allegheny Energy, Inc. gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See AYE Final Results . |
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