| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: On Thursday, April 30, 2009, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, May 02, 2009:
As of Friday, May 01, 2009, the closing price has been up for 5 days in a row. This week's transaction volume increased as well as the price for CAI. CAI appears to be fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, but it's position is weakening. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 97.83% to 97.91% in the past month. CAI may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week. From the Update 5/1/2009 : The candle representing 5/1/2009 was a stepped up medium body after a Star short body previously. The stepped candle has a body that is shadowed at one end only. It can indicate an orderly progression of the market. On Thursday, April 30, 2009, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: CAI Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
This look at CACI Intl begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See CAI Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See CAI Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See CAI Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of CACI Intl Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See CAI Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of CACI Intl prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to CAI historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of CAI.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward CAI. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of CAI prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the CAI historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See CAI Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for CACI Intl speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See CAI Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for CACI Intl gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See CAI Final Results . |
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