| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: No really strong signals during the past week. On Wednesday, February 17, 2010, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 06, 2010:
The volume fell this week on CAT while the price rose. So caution is advised. CAT seems fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, and the position is moving to the bullish. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 100.39% to 100.42% in the past month. After increasing the spread over the week, CAT is now 20.00 % above the 200 session Simple Moving Average. From the Update 3/10/2010 : The most recent candle is a Shadowed short body, following the stepped down medium body on the previous session. A shadowed session is one with an open-to-close range that is completely within the bounds of the previous day's open-to-close range. This indicates a lack of direction in the market for this issue. No really strong signals during the past week. On Wednesday, February 17, 2010, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Caterpillar, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See CAT Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See CAT Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of CAT stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See CAT Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Caterpillar Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See CAT Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Caterpillar prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to CAT historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of CAT.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of CAT stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward CAT. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Caterpillar in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to CAT over the next few months? See CAT Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for CAT. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See CAT Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Caterpillar gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See CAT Final Results . |
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