| Below - This chart from Chapter 5 reveals a strong signal: The 20 session moving average rose up over the 200 bar moving average in the past 7 days. |
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Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
This look at Ciena Corporation begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See CIEN Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See CIEN Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See CIEN Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Ciena Corporation Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See CIEN Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Ciena Corporation prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in CIEN stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of CIEN.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Ciena Corporation show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of CIEN prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Ciena Corporation historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Ciena Corporation in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to CIEN over the next few months? See CIEN Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for CIEN. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See CIEN Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Ciena Corporation gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See CIEN Final Results . |
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