| Below - Illustration from Chapter 9: VPI or Volume Portion Index, is a momentum investing indicator that reached a peak on Tuesday, November 29, 2005. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 03, 2005:
Over the past 4 sessions (ending Friday, December 02, 2005), the closing price has been lower than the previous day. Falling price on increasing volume can be bad news for CPN or any other issue. Major damage occurred with the price slipping by -77.42 %. No buy signal yet, but the Wilder RSI is becoming more bullish. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. This indicator is down over the last month. CPN has fallen -90.00 % below the 200 bar average line, increasing the distance over the past week. From the Update 12/5/2005 : The latest trading day is represented as a Star Doji, coming on the heels of a Star long day on Friday. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Today, we see a "Doji Star" which shows a peculiar combination of new direction and low inner volatility. This important sign is often seen at market tops and bottoms, and many believe it to be a sign of a coming reversal. VPI or Volume Portion Index, is a momentum investing indicator that reached a peak on Tuesday, November 29, 2005. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of CPN:
Chapter 1:
This look at Calpine begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See CPN Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See CPN Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of CPN stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See CPN Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See CPN Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Calpine prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in CPN stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of CPN.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward CPN. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of CPN prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Calpine in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See CPN Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Calpine speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See CPN Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Calpine gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See CPN Final Results . |
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