| Below - Illustration from Chapter 9: VPI or Volume Portion Index, is a momentum investing indicator that reached a peak on Tuesday, November 29, 2005. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 03, 2005:
As of closing time on the NYSE Friday, December 02, 2005, the price has been down for 5 days in a row. Last week the price of CPN went down and the volume grew. Major damage occurred with the price slipping by -77.42 %. Although the Wilder RSI at 22.22 is not low enough to be a buy signal, it has become more bullish since last week. The general RSI remains in the same range as last week, with a small favorable drift. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. This indicator is down over the last month. CPN has fallen -90.00 % below the 200 bar average line, increasing the distance over the past week. From the Update 12/5/2005 : The candle representing 12/5/2005 was a Star Doji after a Star long day previously. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. Today, we see a "Doji Star" which shows a peculiar combination of new direction and low inner volatility. This important sign is often seen at market tops and bottoms, and many believe it to be a sign of a coming reversal. VPI or Volume Portion Index, is a momentum investing indicator that reached a peak on Tuesday, November 29, 2005. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis:
Chapter 1:
The Classical Analysis of Time Series establishes a good starting point in the analysis, and provides a high vantage point for viewing patterns of behaviour in the prices over the entire history of Calpine. See CPN Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Calpine prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See CPN Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See CPN Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See CPN Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Calpine prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in CPN stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of CPN.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward CPN. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Visualization and Prediction:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the CPN historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See CPN Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for CPN. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See CPN Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Calpine gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See CPN Final Results . |
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