| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: No really strong signals during the past week. On Tuesday, December 09, 2008, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 20, 2008:
As of closing time on the NYSE Friday, December 19, 2008, the price has been down for 4 days in a row. When both price and volume fall, as was the case with CSCO this week, a lack of buying interest is indicated. Sometimes this presents an opportunity. CSCO appears to be fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, but it's position is weakening. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. This indicator is down over the last month. The phase of the 200 day Simple Moving Average was hardly altered during the week. From the Update 12/23/2008 : The latest trading day is represented as a stepped down short body, coming on the heels of a Star short body on Monday. While not a particularly powerful sign, the stepped down candle shows an orderly market, with some selling pressure. No really strong signals during the past week. On Tuesday, December 09, 2008, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible sell alert. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Classical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
The Classical Analysis of Time Series establishes a good starting point in the analysis, and provides a high vantage point for viewing patterns of behaviour in the prices over the entire history of Cisco Systems. See CSCO Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See CSCO Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See CSCO Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Cisco Systems Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See CSCO Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Cisco Systems prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Mid Level Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in CSCO stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of CSCO.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward CSCO. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of CSCO prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Cisco Systems historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the CSCO historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to CSCO over the next few months? See CSCO Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Cisco Systems speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See CSCO Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Cisco Systems gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See CSCO Final Results . |
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