| Below - Illustration from Chapter 9: The Volume Portion Index (VPI) on Monday, October 10, 2005 reached a range extreme. Interpretation of this event is dependent on the direction of the price movement. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, October 08, 2005:
Although the price increased by 13.33 % for DAL this week, the volume actually fell, sending cautionary note for the future. DAL appears to be fairly priced, according to the Wilder RSI, but it's position is weakening. Since last week, there has been a slip toward the bear side. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 95.27% to 95.28% in the past month. Closing the gap with the 200 bar moving average a bit last week, DAL would appear to have reached phase 4 of the oscillation cycle. It is -77.00 % under the line. From the Update 10/12/2005 : The candle on 10/12/2005 is a Doji. This comes after a Star Doji Man the day before. The Volume Portion Index (VPI) on Monday, October 10, 2005 reached a range extreme. Interpretation of this event is dependent on the direction of the price movement. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of DAL:
Chapter 1:
Classical Analysis provides a good overview of the data for Delta Airlines, and reveals patterns that will be explored with detail in later sections. See DAL Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Delta Airlines prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See DAL Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See DAL Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Delta Airlines Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See DAL Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Delta Airlines prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Intermediate Analysis Techniques:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of DAL.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of DAL stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
Technical Analysis discovers the range of moods of investors toward DAL. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of DAL prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Delta Airlines historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Delta Airlines in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See DAL Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for DAL. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See DAL Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Delta Airlines gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See DAL Final Results . |
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