| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Monday, February 22, 2010. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, February 27, 2010:
When both price and volume fall, as was the case with DBD this week, a lack of buying interest is indicated. Sometimes this presents an opportunity. According to the Wilder RSI, DBD is in the middle, but it is moving in a bearish direction. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It lost ground during the last week, but is still up for the month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/3/2010 : The candle for3/3/2010 was a stepped up long day coming after the prior day's long day. The stepped candle has a body that is shadowed at one end only. It can indicate an orderly progression of the market. A calibrated version of the Wilder RSI Indicator reached a sell signal level on Monday, February 22, 2010. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis:
Chapter 1:
This look at Diebold begins with a Classical Time Series Analysis of the historical stock prices, providing a vantage point over patterns that will be explored in greater detail in the following chapters. See DBD Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See DBD Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
This section shows historical volumes for sales of DBD stock, along with Seasonal and Cyclical Trends in Volume. See DBD Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
A look at Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Diebold Historical Prices identifies the best and worst months to be invested. See DBD Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Diebold prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in DBD stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of DBD.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Diebold show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Ordinary analysis does not show the features of the behavioral history underneath the price volume line. Here multi-spectral analysis brings the hidden features to the surface. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
The combination of multi-spectral and mult-dimensional analysis of Diebold historical trends, yields a rich set of behavioral surfaces. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the DBD historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to DBD over the next few months? See DBD Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
This chapter rates some "single company strategies" for Diebold speculators. One of the most important aspects of a good money management strategy is the proper setting of stop loss orders. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See DBD Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Diebold gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See DBD Final Results . |
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