| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: On Friday, December 26, 2008, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible buy alert. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, January 03, 2009:
Looking back from Friday, January 02, 2009, the past 3 sessions have seen higher closing prices than the day before. Although the price increased by 5.42 % for DIS this week, the volume actually fell, sending cautionary note for the future. According to the Wilder RSI, DIS is in the middle, but it is moving in a bearish direction. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. Negative Volume Indexes are running at fair price levels. This indicator is down over the last month. Phase four of the MACD sequence is at least mildly bullish because the stock may get a boost as it approaches the 200 session moving average. Currently the stock is -17.00 % below that line, but the distance narrowed over the week. From the Update 1/2/2009 : The recent session is represented as a Star long day, following the Star short body Hammer on Wednesday. A star happens when the body range is entirely outside the range of the day before. So there has been a gap, indicating a strong new direction. On Friday, December 26, 2008, the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", indicator produced a possible buy alert. |
Table of Contents
Volume I: Traditional Analysis of DIS:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of DIS by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See DIS Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Understanding Price Volatility behaviour is essential to assessing the risk associated with positions across different time spans. See DIS Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Changes in Daily Volume are tracked in time here. Time Series Analysis demonstrates Trends and Cyclical Patterns in the number of shares transacted. See DIS Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See DIS Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Walt Disney prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
Price Analysis according to Political Factors reveals some surprising results. Computing trends against the November based political calendar may give better predictions than the traditional calculations based on the January calendar year! See Politics and Prices of DIS.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
A view of Momentum Analysis that takes Volume into account as well as Price. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Walt Disney show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The length of "Runs", (the number of consecutive price movements up or down) reveal some new ways to visualize Price Series Data. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
The traditional techniques of Candlestick Analysis may seem fanciful, but certain aspects are firmly grounded in the science of Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of DIS prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Frequency Analysis and Waveform Characterization are applied to the historical prices of Walt Disney in this chapter. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to DIS over the next few months? See DIS Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for DIS. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See DIS Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Walt Disney gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See DIS Final Results . |
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