| Below - Illustration from Chapter 5: Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Monday, December 15, 2008. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, December 20, 2008:
The volume fell this week on FDX while the price rose. So caution is advised. The Line of Least Resistance is still bullish according to the Wilder RSI, but has become less favorable since last week. The RSI has weakened since last week, but not enough to change the category. The Negative Volume Index is at 110.21% of the average value. This reveals that some investors are buying on the dips in price. It seems to be rising, coming from 110.14% to 110.21% in the past month. FDX may have reached phase 4 of the oscillator cycle, which is to say that, while the price is still below the 200 day average, the gap has closed somewhat during the last week. From the Update 12/23/2008 : The candle on 12/23/2008 is a stepped down long day. This comes after an Engulfing short body the day before. While not a particularly powerful sign, the stepped down candle shows an orderly market, with some selling pressure. Recently there have not been any particularly significant signals. A signal from the "Moving Avg. 5/20 Divergence", was flagged on Monday, December 15, 2008. This value of the indicator is generally interpreted as a buy signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: FDX Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
Fedex historical prices are subjected to old fashioned Classical Time Series Analysis in this section. Patterns that emerge here will be a starting point for more detailed analysis. See FDX Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
Risks associated with short and long period price changes can be understood through Volatility Analysis. Here the impact of the Volatility Curve on the potential profitability positions across different time spans is shown. See FDX Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See FDX Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See FDX Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
Moving Averages of various flavours are popular indicators. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Fedex prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Some say that modern analysis began with the successful identification of technical oscillators such as the highly effective Wilder RSI. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
A different type of Seasonal Analysis is applied to FDX historical prices. Here the 24 month, November based Political Calendar is the basis for non-standard Seasonal Analysis. See Politics and Prices of FDX.
Chapter 8:
Volume Stratification Analysis (or VSA) follows price behavior in relation to historical volumes of FDX stock sales. Knowledge of these behaviors gives us a quantitative metric useful for understanding Support or Resistance Levels, and predicting their strength. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Fedex show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
The chapter first converts the Price Line to several different mappings based on "Runs" or the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of FDX prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the FDX historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Predictions and Forecasts. What will happen to FDX over the next few months? See FDX Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for FDX. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See FDX Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Fedex gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See FDX Final Results . |
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