| Below - Illustration from Chapter 6: The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Thursday, March 11, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
 Summary of Recent Reports:Weekend Report Comments on Saturday, March 13, 2010:
As of Friday, March 12, 2010, the closing price has been up for 9 days in a row. The price of FLR rose by 3.00 % this week, but the volume declined, which is a caution sign. Although the Wilder RSI at 27.54 is not low enough to be a buy signal, it has become more bullish since last week. There is a favorable category change from last week's close. The Negative Volume Index Aggregate is near the middle of the range. It seems to be rising, coming from 100.76% to 100.80% in the past month. Since the previous week the phase of the oscillator around the 200 bar average is almost unchanged. From the Update 3/18/2010 : The candle for3/18/2010 was a medium body coming after the prior day's Star medium body. The most recent signal, "Wilder's 7 Day RSI Signals at 80 and 20", was produced on Thursday, March 11, 2010. In this range, it is most often considered to be a sell signal. |
Table of Contents
Volume 1: Technical Analysis:
Chapter 1:
An introductory chapter looks at the price history of FLR by applying Classical Time Series Analysis. Some of the patterns seen here will prove to be important in further analysis. See FLR Classical Analysis.
Chapter 2:
This survey looks at historical volatility of Fluor Corporation (NEW) prices. The risks associated with long and short term positions can be evaluated according to projected shapes of the Volatility Curve. See FLR Volatility Risk.
Chapter 3:
Historical Volume Trends are analyzed here, revealing seasonal patterns and the influence of the Business Cycle. See FLR Historical Volume.
Chapter 4:
The Traditional Seasonal Analysis of Price Trends can still yield valuable predictive information. See FLR Calendar Year Trends.
Chapter 5:
One of the most popular indicators, the Moving Average, comes in many variations. Here we test the predictive ability of different averages as applied to prediction of Fluor Corporation (NEW) prices. See Average Indicators.
Volume II: Modern Technical Analysis:
Chapter 6:
Technical Oscillators are compared to test their power as buy or sell signals for speculating in FLR stock. We conduct an extensive investigation of the popular "RSI" of Welles Wilder and some of its variations. See Technical Oscillators.
Chapter 7:
This chapter takes a view somewhat similar to standard analysis of seasonal trends, but it is based on the 4 year or 2 year Political Calendar rather than the 1 year Standard Calendar. Political Seasons work better than Calendar Seasons for predicting prices of many companies. See Politics and Prices of FLR.
Chapter 8:
A sophisticated method associates price levels with historical volumes. Such semi-abstract concepts as Support and Resistance may then be defined with mathematical precision. See Volumetric Analysis.
Chapter 9:
Analysis of Market Momentum as the product of Price and Volume drives an interpretation considerably more sophisticated than those that consider Price Momentum alone. See Momentum Investing Indicators.
Chapter 10:
The mood of the market toward Fluor Corporation (NEW) show up in the Daily Closing Altitude and other Sentiment Indicators. See Market Sentiment.
Section 11:
This section visualizes mappings based on the number of consecutive price movements in a particular direction. A discussion of the "Monte Carlo Fallacy" and it's relevance to Stock Price Prediction leads to a revisionist method of Price Projection using the Bernoulli Analysis. See Bernoulli Run Analysis.
Chapter 12:
Japanese Candlesticks have a long history, but continue to be used because some of their best concepts are based on universal Investor Psychology. See Japanese Candlesticks.
Volume III: Advanced Price Behavior Visualization:
Chapter 13:
Multi-spectral analysis reveals behavioral features of FLR prices that may not be apparent to ordinary analysis. See Support and Resistance.
Chapter 14:
Combining the historical behavior surfaces with the geometry of long standing periodic price oscillations yields a behavior surface of more than three dimensions which has an extremely low residual error compared to other methods of analysis. See Price Behavior Surfaces.
Chapter 15:
Here we look at periodic frequency and waveform characteristics of the FLR historical price series. Classical techniques such as the Fourier Transform and newer digital filtering techniques contribute to this analysis. See Frequency and Waveform Analysis.
Chapter 16:
Forecasts are gathered from several sources to predict future price movements. See FLR Price Predictions.
Volume IV: Final Results and Trading Strategy:
Chapter 17:
The results of various trading strategies carried out over 10 years are evaluated here for FLR. The results of "buy and hold", "buy the dips", and other strategies are compared, as well as sliding stop settings. See Single Company Strategies.
Chapter 18:
The trading policies that work well when applied to speculation in any one companies stock may fall short when applied to the more usual situation where a person is speculating on a basket or portfolio of companies. Here we find the best muti-company portfolio trading policies. See FLR Multi-Company Strategies .
Appendix A:
The statistical abstract for Fluor Corporation (NEW) gathers the most relevant analysis into a single chapter. See FLR Final Results . |
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